Doug Gibler's Teaching Blog

We've moved!

2009-08-19T13:36:00.000-05:00

Tired of Blogger software, I’ve switched to WordPress. I’ll be using the new format for the foreseeable future. Here's the link: http://giblersclasses.wordpress.com/

Conflict Resolution Notes

2009-05-25T08:59:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Domestic Effects of Territorial Issues

2009-05-19T09:01:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Territorial Issues

2009-05-18T08:54:00.000-05:00

Notes for today's class.

Crises Notes

2009-05-14T08:53:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Arms Race Notes

2009-05-13T08:44:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Update: Terrorist Organizations

Alliance Notes

2009-05-12T08:49:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Syllabus for PSC321 Conflict and the Middle East (Interim 2009)

2009-05-10T18:41:00.001-05:00

Here is a .pdf of the syllabus. Included below is the full text with links.

PSC 321 - 007 Conflict and Democracy in the Middle East (Interim 2009)

Prof. Douglas M. Gibler

314 ten Hoor Hall

Email: doug.gibler@gmail.com

Homepage: http://bama.ua.edu/~dmgibler

Course Blog: http://giblersclasses.blogspot.coin/index.html

Class meeting time and place: 9:00am-12pm, M-F

Office Hours: by appointment.

Conflict and Democracy in the Middle East

This course explores how conflict has shaped politics in the Middle East. The course is divided into several parts. First, most lectures and discussions will focus on the scientific theories and findings on the causes of conflict. These will be supplemented by lighter, more popular readings on recent and ongoing conflicts in the region. Together, the course material should give a broad overview of the international relations of the area and provide a basis for evaluating current policies. Finally, to apply the knowledge gained in class, students will be asked to formulate their own peace proposal for one ongoing area of conflict.

REQUIRED READINGS:

Several articles. Links and detailed bibliographies are provided on this syllabus.

COURSE REQUIREMENTS:

(50%) Quizzes on readings

(50%) Peace Proposal

Approximately 4-5 quizzes will monitor students' comprehension of the readings.

The peace proposal is a 5-7 page (typed, double-spaced) analysis of a contemporary Middle East conflict. Students are expected to use the readings from class and their own research to suggest a possible solution to the conflict. These papers will be graded according to how well the student applies the tools of conflict resolution. We will discuss the peace proposal throughout the course, and students will also be allotted several research days to complete the project.

CLASS BLOG:

I use a class blog to communicate with my classes. On the blog website (see above), I'll post support material for each class discussion. I'll included brief discussion as well as hyperlinks to what I'd like to demonstrate in class. (For example, for the first class, I have already posted most of the introductory material that follows.) Most of the time, I will allow comments to be added to these posts. I would encourage students with questions outside of class to ask them through these posts. Further, any students willing to try to answer these questions (correctly) will definitely increase their overall course discussion grade!

ATTENDANCE:

I require attendance. Attendance is helpful to you and to everyone else because my classes are oriented around discussion of the readings. Given class sizes, though, it's not always possible for me to take roll. However, I will likely pass around a sign-in sheet whenever class attendance drops too low, and I will use these sheets to gauge your overall attendance for the semester. Don't get caught napping!

I require attendance for good reason - those who come to class grasp the material better and are able to engage the class on a much higher level. In fact, the few semesters I took attendance I found that grades and attendance were highly correlated (around .81).

CLASS DISCUSSIONS:

Discussion of the material is important in my classes. I hate to lecture and will only do so occasionally. That means students are required to come prepared and to be able to intelligently discuss the material for that week. I of course realize that students might sometimes be unwilling to talk in class, especially in the larger rooms. However, I really believe that discussion of the material is fundamental to understanding, and I hope each student will contribute as much as they can. That said, I will not penalize students for failing to talk in class, and I'll never call on someone who doesn't raise their hand asking to be recognized.

Note that the use of the blog provides a second chance for discussion points for those students unwilling to talk in class. Use the comments section of each post to ask questions, answer questions and otherwise communicate with your classmates.

GRADING POLICY:

There is no official grading policy at UA, so I though students might like to know the general outline I use for assignments.

A (90s) Excellent: Students have mastered the material, exams or papers have no serious mistakes and display creativity, thoughtfulness, or insight beyond points made in the readings.

B (80s) Solid: there may be a couple of mistakes on exams, or weaknesses in written work, but the basic ideas and comprehension of the material are correct. B is a very good grade in my classes.

C (70s) Average: there are some basic misunderstandings of the material because the student has not put enough effort into the work. Regular attendance, completion of the readings, and light engagement of the subject will earn you this grade.

D (60s) Deficient: there are serious misunderstandings in the work and/or little evidence of any hard work.

F (50s or less) Failure to even try.

CHEATING AND PLAGIARISM:

I take academic integrity very seriously and will not tolerate plagiarism or cheating. There are very serious penalties for cheating at UA that could have consequences far beyond your college career. Cheating of any form is a really stupid thing to do so don't try, and if you have any doubts about what cheating is, ask me, examine the UA policies (see below), or better still, take this tutorial on plagiarism that was developed by UA's libraries: Play-it-safe.

The Code of Academic Conduct in the University of Alabama Undergraduate Catalog defines plagiarism and other acts of academic dishonesty as follows:

Plagiarism: representing the words, data, works, ideas, computer programs or output, or anything not generated in an authorized fashion, as one’s own
Cheating: using or attempting to use unauthorized materials, information, study aids, or computer-related information
Fabrication: presenting as genuine any invented or falsified citation or material
Misrepresentation: falsifying, altering, or misstating the contents of documents or other materials related to academic matters, including schedules, prerequisites, and transcripts.

Remember- the following require the use of a citation:

Any material directly quoted from another’s work
Any information that is summarized or paraphrased
Any idea derived from a known source
Any fact or data not common knowledge and borrowed from another’s work

Material that is common or general knowledge does not have to be footnoted, unless the wording is taken directly from a particular source. A general rule is that if a fact can be found in five or more sources, it is considered to be common knowledge and does not have to be documented.

GRADING POLICY:

Final course grades earned in this class will be whole grades such that an A = 90%+, B = 89-80%, C = 79-70%, etc. Individual assignments will include plus and minus grades such that an A=95%, A-=92, B+=88, B=85, B- =82, etc.

LATE ASSINGMENTS AND MISSED TESTS:

Project due dates will be set in class and announced on the class blog. Fairness dictates that no late assignments will be accepted, no exceptions tolerated. Incompletes for this course will be granted only for extraordinary circumstances. Make-up examinations will be granted only for extraordinary circumstances. Seriously. If you absolutely, positively have to miss an exam, see me as soon as possible.

DISABILITY ACCESS STATEMENT:

To request disability accommodations, please contact the Office of Disability Services at 348-4285. After consultation with that office, contact your professor. However, it is the student's responsibility to make arrangements for the accommodations on a timely basis. Special arrangements for exams must be made at least one week prior to the exam date or your instructor is not required to provide requested accommodations. Any request for special arrangements made less than one week prior to an exam date may not be able to be honored.

CLASS SCHEDULE:

Monday, May 11th – Introduction to course: how do we “know” something?

Tuesday, May 12th – Alliances and Alignments

Hersh, Seymour, “Syria Calling,” The New Yorker, April 6, 2009.

Ajami, Fouad, “The Ways of Syria: Stasis in Damascus,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2009.

Wednesday, May 13th – Arms Races

Anderson, Jon Lee, “Letter from Beirut: The Battle for Lebanon,” The New Yorker, August 7, 2006.

Thursday, May 14th – Crises and Rivalries

Slater, Jerome, “Muting the Alarm over the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The New York Times versus Haaretz, 2000–06,” International Security Fall 2007, 32(2): 84–120.

Friday, May 15th – Research Day

Monday, May 18th – Territorial Issues

Vasquez, John A. 1995. “Why Do Neighbors Fight?: Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality,” Journal of Peace Research. 32(3): 277-293. [NOTE: You must be on a campus computer or using a proxy server to access the .pdf for this article.]

Tuesday, May 20th – Territorial Issues II

Wikipedia entries for British Mandate of Palestine, Yom Kippur War, Shebaa Farms, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip

Wednesday, May 21st – Terrorism

Hassan, Nasra. 2001. “An Arsenal of Believers,” The New Yorker, November 19, pp. 36-41.

Thursday, May 22nd – Terrorism II

Krueger, Alan B and David D. Laitin, 2003, Kto Kogo?: A Cross-Country Study of the Origins

and Targets of Terrorism, unpublished working paper, Princeton University.

Friday, May 23rd – Research Day

Monday, May 25th – Conflict Resolution Strategies

Pruitt, Dean G. 2001. “Achieving Integrative Agreements,” in The Negotiation Sourcebook, edited by Ira G. Asherman and Sandra Vance Asherman, Human Resource Development Press: New York, pp. 187-196.

Tuesday, May 26th – Conflict Resolution Strategies: Outlining Demands

Hussein Agha and Robert Malley 2001. “Camp David: The Tragedy of Errors.” New York Review of Books, August 9.

Benny Morris (and Ehud Barak) 2002. “Camp David and After: An Exchange.” New York Review of Books, June 13.

Hussein Agha and Robert Malley 2002. “Camp David and After: An Exchange 2.” New York Review of Books, June 13.

Wednesday, May 27th – Conflict Resolution Strategies: Outlining Issues

Thursday, May 28th – Conflict Resolution Strategies: Outlining Interests

Friday, May 29th – Discussion of Term Papers; PAPERS DUE!

Belgium Study Abroad 2009

2008-12-04T09:28:00.001-06:00

Don't forget: email me (dmgibler (at) bama.ua.edu) if you are interested in the Belgium study abroad program for 2009.

Copies of Tests 1 and 2

2008-12-04T09:21:00.002-06:00

For interested students: test #1 and test #2 are now available. Note that these are test questions only. The answers might not match your myBama accounts because of differences across test versions (e.g., you may have taken test 1-C, but the link goes to test 1-A).

Random News (Africa Edition)

2008-12-04T09:18:00.003-06:00

Have you heard yet about the riots in Nigeria? Some interesting comparisons between news coverage of the riots and the terrorism in Mumbai.

Sending "messengers of death" to the DRC?

Class Notes -- Chapter 16 (structural theories of war)

2008-12-04T09:16:00.002-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Restraint

2008-12-04T09:10:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 2

2008-12-04T09:06:00.004-06:00

Summary stats for test #2:

Max-- 96
Min-- 45
Mean-- 77
Median-- 81

Here is a copy of the exam key (in case you haven't seen it before).

Random Things Political

2008-12-02T09:20:00.002-06:00

Ballot design for dummies: lizard people?

For BdM fans, there is a documentary about him running on the history channel. The next Nostradamus? Hmmm. Next showing, Saturday, December 6th.

Class Notes -- Chapter 15 (alliances)

2008-12-02T09:19:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

2008-12-02T09:12:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 13 (IPE)

2008-11-20T14:55:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes from today's class.

Class Notes -- Military Interventions and Refugee Disasters

2008-11-20T09:14:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Graduate Student Seminar on Publication

2008-11-19T12:56:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes from today's seminar to graduate students on publication in political science.

Revised Class Schedule

2008-11-18T09:21:00.003-06:00

Here is the revised class schedule for the few remaining weeks of class:

Tuesday, November 18th-- Chapter 14
Thursday, November 20th-- Chapter 13
Tuesday, November 25th-- Chapter 13 (continued)
Tuesday. December 2nd-- Chapter 15
Thursday, December 4th-- Chapter 16

Class Notes -- Chapter 14 (Intl Law and Organizations)

2008-11-18T09:20:00.003-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Two Posts on Writing (and some funnies...)

2008-11-18T09:08:00.003-06:00

Most irritating phrases in the English language, thanks to Oxford (and the Monkey Cage), here.

What are the possible benefits of writing well? Do you know who Watson and Crick are? How about Avery, MacLeod and McCarty? Take a look at the discussion on writing here.

Other funnies-- Obama must give up his Blackberry, and Sarkozy stops Putin in his tracks.

Class Notes -- Air Power and the (First) Persian Gulf War

2008-11-18T09:04:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

PSC413 Revised Schedule

2008-11-18T08:56:00.002-06:00

Here is the revised schedule for the last few weeks of the semester. Note well-- you can only access the articles through the provided links while on a campus computer.

Tuesday, November 18th--

Press, Daryl G., "The Myth of Air Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare," International Security. 26:2 (Fall 2001), 5–44

Thursday, November 20th--

Posen, Barry R. “Military responses to refugee disasters,” International Security.
Summer 1996 v21 n1

Tuesday, November 25th--

Discussion of US Interventionism

Tuesday, December 2nd--

Pape, Robert, “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism”, American Political
Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 August 2003: 1-19.

Tuesday, December 4th--

Gholz, Eugene et al., “Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the
Face of Temptation.” International Security, Spring 1997, 21(4)

Politics and the Media

2008-11-04T09:18:00.002-06:00

Since today is election day, I thought it'd be nice to take a look at who would be covering the election all day. There are actually quite a few interesting recent analyses about how the US media covers politics, but below are two that caught my eye:

First, here is a link to an analysis of country coverage by the New York Times (thanks to Marginal Revolution). And here is an analysis of the major network polls. Does this ordering make sense? Why might there be bias, even in polling?

Class Notes -- Chapter 12 (Domestic Institutions and National Performance)

2008-11-04T09:17:00.001-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Polarity and AFP part deux

2008-11-04T09:06:00.000-06:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words...

2008-10-30T08:58:00.001-05:00

from Dani Rodrik's blog... the credit crisis in one picture.

Class Notes -- Chapter 11 (Perceptions and Deterrence)

2008-10-30T08:51:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Polarity and AFP

2008-10-30T08:50:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

More random news...

2008-10-28T09:19:00.001-05:00

Here is a nice link for those wanting to maximize their influence this election. But if you want to just watch pretty pictures that also have to do with international relations, then check out this video that maps flights across the globe.

Talk at the Rotary Club

2008-10-28T09:13:00.002-05:00

Today at noon I'll be giving a talk at the Rotary Club of Tuscaloosa. For a link to the presentation, click here.

Note to PSC413 students: this has much to do with American Foreign Policy!

World War II Posters

2008-10-23T09:15:00.002-05:00

Here is a link to some amazing World War II posters. Notice the rhetoric being used but also to how many facets of life the war is supposed to affect...

Class Notes -- Deterrence

2008-10-23T09:11:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Random News of the Day

2008-10-21T09:14:00.002-05:00

A recent study of college students and where they should vote has some interesting implications regarding local voting rules:

Thus, in the extreme, the “rules” might even depend on when you showed up in the registrar’s office and whom you spoke to.

Andrew Gelman has more on ideologies among the US electorate. Notice how different the House and Senate are from general public opinion. Why do you think this is the case?

Do you want to know how much professors get to study stuff like the above? An all too true comic about academic salaries versus athletics salaries is here.

Class Notes -- Chapter 10 (Perceptions)

2008-10-21T09:10:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- The Long Peace

2008-10-21T09:02:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

2008-10-16T16:08:00.004-05:00

The summary statistics for exam #1 are below. Here is a copy of the exam. You can use myBama to access the answers to individual answers in the multiple choice.

Number of students taking the exam: 61
Total Points Available: 98 (I added 2 points to every exam as a curve)
Mean score: 72 (74 after curve)
Maximum score: 92 (94)
Minimum score: 29 (31)
Median score: 77 (79)

Here is a breakdown by score:

94
92
92
92
90
90
89
89
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
85
84
83
83
82
82
82
82
82
81
81
81
81
81
80
79
79
77
76
75
74
74
73
72
72
71
71
71
71
68
67
66
66
65
65
63
61
56
54
49
49
47
45
44
43
31

Study Abroad Opportunity in Belgium

2008-10-16T09:27:00.002-05:00

Here is a link to a study abroad opportunity in Brussels, Belgium. Brussels is of course the seat to most of the European Union institutions and also the headquarters for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Interested students should contact me at dmgibler (@) bama.ua.edu and also visit this website, which describes the program.

Class Notes -- Cuban Missile Crisis (Bureaucratic Politics)

2008-10-16T09:23:00.002-05:00

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis this week in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Class notes for today are here.

UPDATE: Link to the Allison article here.

Random Post of the Day

2008-10-14T10:50:00.003-05:00

It's an election year, so more stuff about the US elections:

Here is a map of the world's vote for US President. What's the rationale for these "voters"? And from InsideHigherEd.com, here is a report of an interesting study:

Students get more liberal while they’re in college — but a new study suggests that their peers, not professors, seem to be the reason why, according to the Associated Press. The study, by the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles, finds evidence to back up the assertion that many students adopt more liberal positions on many issues from their freshman to their junior year. But the researchers attribute the shifts more to students’ exposure to left-leaning peer groups than to the views of their professors, the wire service reports.

Class Notes -- Chapter 9 (preferences)

2008-10-14T09:27:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Miscellany

2008-10-07T09:17:00.003-05:00

Might it be the case that the object of terrorism is a long war, intended to wear down the victim and change the status quo slowly? Of course, the recent financial mess may just be but a blip if we consider long-term economic trends. What are the immediate effects of a downturn? Perhaps there'll be more students entering graduate school.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power) continued

2008-10-07T09:08:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes on Khong (part II)

2008-10-07T06:32:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

The International Effects of the Bailout?

2008-10-02T08:16:00.002-05:00

We know the bailout is huge, so what are the opportunity costs of such a plan? Here is an analysis with regard to Africa. Be sure to follow the links through to look at the level of investment in Africa over the past 8 years.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power)

2008-10-02T08:15:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Use of Analogies in AFP

2008-10-02T08:13:00.001-05:00

Here are the class notes for today.

International Markets

2008-09-30T08:33:00.003-05:00

It's going to be bumpy economic ride according to Greg Mankiw, economist at Harvard. Of course, if you have money to invest, maybe a good place is Africa these days? Check out this Empowerment Lab project. Wondering how big the proposed bailout would be? Check here for an interesting chart.

So how do you think these economic events are going to affect those in college today? Any ideas?

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

2008-09-30T08:32:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

2008-09-30T08:00:00.005-05:00

The results are in for the first exam in PSC204, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 150
Mean score: 68.1
Range: 28 to 96 (question #44 was omitted because of an error)

UPDATE: Access your test score here, and here is a copy of the test questions.

Full details of student distribution:

grade | Freq. %age Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
28 | 1 0.67 0.67
33 | 1 0.67 1.33
36 | 1 0.67 2.00
39 | 1 0.67 2.67
42 | 1 0.67 3.33
44 | 1 0.67 4.00
46 | 1 0.67 4.67
47 | 1 0.67 5.33
48 | 2 1.33 6.67
49 | 1 0.67 7.33
50 | 2 1.33 8.67
52 | 1 0.67 9.33
54 | 3 2.00 11.33
55 | 3 2.00 13.33
56 | 3 2.00 15.33
57 | 4 2.67 18.00
58 | 4 2.67 20.67
59 | 4 2.67 23.33
60 | 7 4.67 28.00
61 | 3 2.00 30.00
62 | 3 2.00 32.00
63 | 9 6.00 38.00
64 | 3 2.00 40.00
65 | 3 2.00 42.00
66 | 3 2.00 44.00
67 | 4 2.67 46.67
68 | 6 4.00 50.67
69 | 7 4.67 55.33
70 | 4 2.67 58.00
71 | 5 3.33 61.33
72 | 4 2.67 64.00
73 | 1 0.67 64.67
74 | 2 1.33 66.00
75 | 5 3.33 69.33
76 | 5 3.33 72.67
77 | 6 4.00 76.67
78 | 2 1.33 78.00
79 | 4 2.67 80.67
80 | 2 1.33 82.00
81 | 4 2.67 84.67
82 | 4 2.67 87.33
83 | 6 4.00 91.33
84 | 1 0.67 92.00
85 | 1 0.67 92.67
86 | 2 1.33 94.00
88 | 1 0.67 94.67
89 | 1 0.67 95.33
91 | 3 2.00 97.33
92 | 1 0.67 98.00
95 | 2 1.33 99.33
96 | 1 0.67 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 150 100.00

More on the troop surge

2008-09-23T09:17:00.002-05:00

Here is a link to some interesting research on the troop surge in Iraq. Take special note of the assumptions they're making regarding their data.

And for those who enjoy a bit of an historical perspective on things... here are some old Marlboro ads. Smoke up, Mom!

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

2008-09-23T09:16:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Voter Turnout by Age

2008-09-18T09:21:00.002-05:00

Interesting graph of who votes is here. Could the low voter turnout be because all the youngsters were using their Blackberrys? 35% of respondents would give up their spouse rather than their PDA. More:

87% of those interviewed admit that they bring their PDA or smartphone to the bedroom at night.
84% check their email right before nodding off.
80% check their email as soon as they wake up.
62% claim they actually love their PDA or smartphone

Website supporting the Principles... Textbook

2008-09-16T21:33:00.002-05:00

Here is a website that has quizzes, study guides, etc..., that support the Principles textbook by Bueno de Mesquita. It seems like a good resource for study before the test.

UPDATE: I've put two copies of the textbook and two copies of the workbook on reserve at Gorgas Library. They're available for full day checkout, so make sure to beat the rush and review them now if you need to do so.

Political Science Research on Misinformation and Political Campaigns

2008-09-16T08:49:00.008-05:00

The use of misinformation in political campaigning is a hot topic right now. John Sides at The Monkey Cage highlights a Washington Post article that discusses some recent experimental research.

From the WashPo article:

In experiments conducted by political scientist John Bullock at Yale University, volunteers were given various items of political misinformation from real life. One group of volunteers was shown a transcript of an ad created by NARAL Pro-Choice America that accused John G. Roberts Jr., President Bush's nominee to the Supreme Court at the time, of "supporting violent fringe groups and a convicted clinic bomber."...

Bullock then showed volunteers a refutation of the ad by abortion-rights supporters. He also told the volunteers that the advocacy group had withdrawn the ad. Although 56 percent of Democrats had originally disapproved of Roberts before hearing the misinformation, 80 percent of Democrats disapproved of the Supreme Court nominee afterward. Upon hearing the refutation, Democratic disapproval of Roberts dropped only to 72 percent.

Republican disapproval of Roberts rose after hearing the misinformation but vanished upon hearing the correct information. The damaging charge, in other words, continued to have an effect even after it was debunked among precisely those people predisposed to buy the bad information in the first place.

There also may be a "backfire effect" in which refutation reinforces the original misinformation:

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A paper by John Bullock is here. Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler’s paper is here. AFP students should think about the perseverance effect here when we talk about Khong's book.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Domestic Politics and Strategic Choice)

2008-09-16T08:47:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gamson and Modigliani

2008-09-16T08:45:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Surge or Surveillance?

2008-09-11T09:29:00.002-05:00

About a week old, but here's a link to a description of Bob Woodward's new book. Note two things-- first, the US apparently spied heavily on the new Iraqi administration, and second, Woodward claims heavy surveillance in general is more responsible than the troop surge for the decline in violence in Iraq recently.

Khong book

2008-09-10T14:47:00.001-05:00

Here is a very limited preview of the Khong book. If you're having trouble locating a copy in the bookstore, you may want to use this to keep up with the class. However, definitely don't depend on this preview for the test!!

Link to Gaddis' book

2008-09-09T15:38:00.003-05:00

Here is a link to Gaddis' argument on the start of the Cold War. Note that you cannot print from these pages. So, if you'd like a hardcopy, you can go to the library or order a copy for yourself.

[N.B.: I'll only test from Gaddis based on what was covered in class. I will not pull questions from the book. The link is only provided in case you didn't understand part of the argument.]

The End of the World (and Other Things)

2008-09-09T09:04:00.003-05:00

So, the end of the world could be tomorrow, if things at CERN don't go well. If the world doesn't in, you may want to check out this description of a shipping container that's traversing the globe. It's geeky, of course, but very cool, too.

Last, be sure not to listen to those naysayers predicting dire consequences if you vote (or even register to vote).

UPDATE (9/10): Apparently, the world did NOT end today. Here is the story, with some cool maps and graphics.

Class Notes -- Chapter 4 (Structural Theories)

2008-09-09T09:03:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gaddis and the Start of the Cold War

2008-09-09T09:02:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Georgia, Russia, and the US

2008-09-04T09:10:00.002-05:00

Back to international relations and American Foreign Policy...

VP Dick Cheney was in Georgia yesterday affirming US support for Saakashvili's government. After pledging $1B (that's billion) in reconstruction aid for the country, Mr. Cheney is now suggesting that the US would encourage Georgian entry to NATO.

Here are some questions to consider in light of what we're talking about in class: Why give so much aid to Georgia and how do you think this deal affects Russian decision-making? Is it a credible commitment to the country? NATO membership carries a pledge to defend a country against attack. Do you think NATO would actually allow Georgian entry in the near future? If not, then why would the VP make this statement?

Also, there's a large literature on the effects of aid, the promotion of democracy and support of foreign leaders (democratic or otherwise). For my take on this literature, see this recent paper.

Palin's Speech and Nixon's Checkers Speech

2008-09-04T09:08:00.002-05:00

Here's an interesting point about the GOP VP candidate's speech last night. As Philip Kilnker puts it, the parallels to Nixon's "Checkers" speech are "striking"...

Speaker on Friday

2008-09-03T08:56:00.002-05:00

UA will host a very interesting speaker at 2pm on Friday--

the College will have a very special guest on campus this week, National Academy of Science and UA Alumnus Michael Oldstone. He will present a lecture “How Viruses Changed our Country, Continent and Culture: Past, Present and Future Plagues,” at 2 p.m. Sept. 5 in 127 Biology Building. We hope you will attend if possible and encourage your students to do so as well.

For more information, check here.
And no, you will not get extra credit for attending-- well, at least no extra credit in class, perhaps extra credit in life?

Do VP choices matter?

2008-09-02T09:20:00.003-05:00

Andrew Gelman, a statistician at Columbia University says no. Here and here.

How did we come to have lectures at universities?

2008-09-02T09:19:00.002-05:00

Here is a really interesting post by economist, Brad DeLong.

Class Notes -- Chapter 3 (Strategic Interactions)

2008-09-02T09:16:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Spanier and the Start of the Cold War

2008-09-02T09:15:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

No Class Thursday, August 28, 2008

2008-08-26T14:49:00.002-05:00

I'll be at the American Political Science Association (APSA) conference in Boston this weekend, so no class on Thursday.

"House Effects" in Polling

2008-08-26T08:59:00.002-05:00

Since it's an election year, we'll be talking a lot about the presidential election and its effects on International Relations and American Foreign Policy. To start this discussion, considering this really interesting post about "house effects" in the polling data. Here is a bit more complicated (but also very interesting!!) post on how to think about polling results.

Class Notes -- Chapter 2 (Evaluating Theories)

2008-08-26T08:58:00.003-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- World Views in AFP

2008-08-26T08:58:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Worldviews and Foreign Policy

2008-08-22T09:32:00.002-05:00

Here is the Michalak reading for Tuesday's American Foreign Policy class.

Syllabus for PSC204, International Relations

2008-08-21T09:06:00.002-05:00

Here is the syllabus for PSC204, International Relations, Fall 2008.

Syllabus for PSC413, American Foreign Policy

2008-08-21T09:04:00.003-05:00

Here is the syllabus for PSC413, American Foreign Policy, during the Fall 2008 semester.

Class Notes -- Grand Strategy and Restraint

2008-08-06T10:50:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

PSC413 Final Exam Questions

2008-08-06T10:49:00.003-05:00

Here are possible questions for the final exam Friday, August 8th.

PSC204 Final Exam Questions

2008-08-06T08:25:00.002-05:00

Here are 10 possible exam questions for PSC204. Good luck!

Class Notes -- Terrorism

2008-08-05T10:46:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 2

2008-08-05T08:55:00.002-05:00

The results are in for the second exam. Here is an answer key for the exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 24
Mean score: 76.25 (after the curve)
Range: 53 to 104 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 6 point curve for this test.

UPDATED data below...

var1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
53 | 1 4.17 4.17
58 | 2 8.33 12.50
62 | 2 8.33 20.83
65 | 1 4.17 25.00
69 | 1 4.17 29.17
70 | 1 4.17 33.33
71 | 1 4.17 37.50
73 | 1 4.17 41.67
77 | 1 4.17 45.83
78 | 2 8.33 54.17
79 | 1 4.17 58.33
80 | 2 8.33 66.67
81 | 1 4.17 70.83
83 | 1 4.17 75.00
84 | 1 4.17 79.17
88 | 1 4.17 83.33
89 | 1 4.17 87.50
91 | 1 4.17 91.67
97 | 1 4.17 95.83
104 | 1 4.17 100.00

Class Notes -- Air Power and also Refuge Crises

2008-08-04T10:52:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class: part I and part II.

Class Notes - Polarity II

2008-07-30T10:25:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes - Polarity

2008-07-29T10:43:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 13 (Trade)

2008-07-29T08:50:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes on MAD

2008-07-28T10:59:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Cuban Missile Crisis Notes

2008-07-24T10:52:00.001-05:00

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis today in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Here is the first set of notes on Graham Allison. The second set of notes will be delivered in class (sorry, no electronic copy).

Class Notes -- Khong and the Vietnam War (Part II)

2008-07-23T10:30:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 9 (Preferences)

2008-07-23T08:49:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Khong and the Vietnam War

2008-07-22T10:28:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power)

2008-07-22T08:52:00.000-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

2008-07-21T10:56:00.002-05:00

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 24
Mean score: 77.1 (after the curve)
Range: 36 to 96 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 12 point curve for this test. Note that there will NOT be a curve on the next test.

Score # %age Rank

36 | 1 4.17 4.17
56 | 1 4.17 8.33
58 | 1 4.17 12.50
66 | 1 4.17 16.67
68 | 1 4.17 20.83
70 | 2 8.33 29.17
74 | 1 4.17 33.33
76 | 1 4.17 37.50
77 | 2 8.33 45.83
78 | 2 8.33 54.17
82 | 1 4.17 58.33
84 | 2 8.33 66.67
85 | 1 4.17 70.83
86 | 2 8.33 79.17
88 | 1 4.17 83.33
90 | 1 4.17 87.50
92 | 1 4.17 91.67
94 | 1 4.17 95.83
96 | 1 4.17 100.00

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

2008-07-21T08:47:00.002-05:00

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 11
Mean score: 75.9 (after the curve)
Range: 52.5 to 91.7 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 15 point curve for this test. Note that there will NOT be a curve on the next test.

NOTE: The correlation between attendance and score on this exam was VERY strong-- 0.73.

Score # %age Rank
52.5 | 1 9.09 9.09
57.5 | 1 9.09 18.18
63.3 | 1 9.09 27.27
66.7 | 1 9.09 36.36
72.5 | 1 9.09 45.45
80 | 1 9.09 54.55
85 | 1 9.09 63.64
86.7 | 1 9.09 72.73
87.5 | 1 9.09 81.82
91.7 | 2 18.18 100.00

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

2008-07-21T08:45:00.000-05:00

Here are today's class notes on power.

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

2008-07-16T08:58:00.001-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class on domestic politics and the strategic perspective.

Testing Realist v. Liberal on the Start of the Cold War

2008-07-15T10:49:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Bureaucratic Politics and Decisionmaking)

2008-07-15T08:54:00.002-05:00

Here are the notes for today's class on bureaucratic politics.