Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Discussion Question for Democratization Class
For those of you paying attention to the class blog, extra credit (additional discussion points) for quality comments on the likelihood of democracy happening in Iraq. Based on what you've read thus far in class, what do you think needs to happen in order to establish democracy? Is it possible? (Note that you may need to do some basic Internet research on Iraq and distributions of wealth, etc...)
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11 comments:
Democracy seems almost impossible in Iraq. Iraq is rich in oil wealth. Based on the readings, it could be surmised that this oil wealth could lead to great income disparity for the Iraqi people. This income disparity, coupled with the religious and ethnic tensions already in place, could lead to civil war.
Does oil automatically produce income inequality? What role does asset specificty play?
I can't help but feel that Democracy is only a dream for Iraq. Asset specifity plays a large role in Iraq with the majority of their capital coming from the oil. However, if Iraq is to move successfully toward becoming a democracy they will have to expand on their non-oil exports and become more economically independent.
From what I have read, it does seem that oil automatically causes income inequality because only those with the oil are going to have the majority of the total wealth.
The poor know the strentgh of the ruling class, cost of war and the $ of the wealthy. So, knowing this the poor would now have revolted on their own. Also, knowing that the asset specificity is immoble and that the wealthy will fight hard to keep what they have they would probably not have revoltd here either.
Now with the help of the US the poorer class has become strong and have risen up to a new statndard and just maybe they will become a democracy after all.
So, I will be optimistic enough to say "yes" they will become a democracy. I just don't know how long they will have to fight to become one.
Democracy will not prevail anytime soon in Iraq. Even if the lower class rises up and takes control, The leader of their revolt will most likely attempt to become an authoritarian figure. His many years of oppression and being controlled will fuel his hatred toward others and the cycle will continue for years to come. Also, there are not many natural resources, with the exception of oil, for the leaders to trade thus destroying the chance at a multi-faceted economy.
I agree with what amy says completely “The poor know the strentgh of the ruling class,
cost of war and the $ of the wealthy. So, knowing this the poor would now have revolted on their
own.” but I also share an opinion somewhat different from every one else that has responded to
the question about about when and why will people will revolt. I have one question to throw out
to you Professof Gibler what is the lowest cost of a war/revolution that can cause democratic
state or actoins. Me personally I believe that cost is so close to zero that is might as well be zero.
My examples Martin Luther King Jr. and Ghandi. So this tells me that people will revolt any way
because the cost of war minus the weathly is always higher, considerably higher. If you are a
conceptual thinker what I am going to say will be very convincing. I would like to believe that
most people understand that the condition that they are in is solely based upon the actions of
themselves and actions of their predecessors. For instance I have no hard feelings against Bill
Gates because his a zillionare because he has worked for that achievement or it has been handed
down to him. Let’s say that Bill Gates starts demanding that people buy his computers or he kills
your family. Now me and Bill Gates have a huge problem he is affecting are harming what is
mine. A mass of people I don’t believe will revolt for monetary means because the reward is so
small and it is not worth dying for but for the assurance of knowing that you daughters will not
raped and your sons slaughtered for years to come is worth dying for. You can call it what you
want but when African Americans in the 1960's were marching and performing sittin this was a
revolution and there reasoning behind revolting was explained better by no one other than
Malcom X in Harlem May 29, 1964 “We declare our right on this earth.. to be a human being, to
be respected as a humanbeing, to be given the rights of a human being in this society,on this
earth, in this day, which we intend to bring into existence by any means necessary”. This when
people revolt when you make the mistake of treating them inhumane.
What needs to happen for Iraqi to become a democracy? If you’ve studied economics you
should have walked out of the class with the knowledge that the answer to every economic
promblem is an reallocation of resources and that when it come down to wither the government
should intervene to shut down a plant to keep a doctors office open the answer is that the
goverment should leave it alone because what gives the community the most economic benefit
will always win. I would like to think that trying to figure out wither or not Iraq will become a
democracy is a little out of our range of knowledge, but figuring out wither the state will once
again become stable is not. In finding stabilization Iraq will find the best form of Government for
its citizens. What is needed in Iraq? A civil war. Iraq’s two fighting classes have to many issues
that just can not be dealt with in a room full of diplomats. A civil war between the classes is the
only way for Iraq to become stable. Either the two sides will come to a stand still and compose
some sort constitution that has everybody’s well being in mind or one side will win and still
compose a constitution with everyone’s well being in mind (example American Civil War) or
one side will win and become oppressive once again. If this happens another civil war will take
place and will continue to take place until there is a stand still (ancient Rome, Korea, Vietnam)
and a constitution composed that has everyone’s well being in mind .
I think that Iraq may never see democracy, at least not in my lifetime. I feel that there is so much going on with religious issues, and with oil concerns, that the wealthy will also remain in power. If a revolt were to take place by the poor, Iraq could downfall. -Shannae Morgan
What I mean by Iraq downfalling, is that the poor will only lead the way they know how to, in other words Iraq's system wouldn't change.
I think that democracy is a possibility for Iraq. That being said, however, the circumstances necessary to ensure Iraq's transition from their previous regime to a long-standing democratic state would inevitably be different than those of another less asset-specific nation. Because of the small group of people within the country that retain power over the people as a whole, and the wealth mass tied to oil from which they derive that power, the Iraqi government faces a stronger challenge to become democratic than a nation whose resources were more liquid. In order for the government to change, I would recommend that the people of Iraq move to utilizing resources and goods other than oil in order to balance out their economy to whatever extent that might be possible. Also, because of its historical dictatorship, Iraq would be best posed for freedom by taking small steps over an extended time frame that gradually introduced the people to a system where they are given more responsibility within their own government. Once familiar with the system, they would be more likely to embrace its advantages and freedoms.
I agree with most that democracy is a difficult task in Iraq. Oil does not provide a public good it only helps in the private sector. Democracy is hard to achieve if the country is only run by oil/military leaders.
Due to the fact that Iraq has the curse of highly specific oil resources and a general lack of modern communication and information systems along with no middle class that could find a need to concern themsleves with an interest in the system of govenrment installed past a position of religious identification, I would say that the likelihood of Iraq successfully acquiring a Democracy is very small. The lack of survailance over isolatied areas and possibility of insurgence to hide within the population also feed the doubt I have for democracy development in Iraq. Finally, the benefits of insurgence to continue to acquire the resources of the area highly outweigh the risk associated with attacking a fractured, weakly organized system, so inurgence will not diminish, it will only be replaced.
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