Interim and Summer Class Schedule Adverts

If you're interested in studying the causes and effects of international conflict in the Middle East, then check out my Interim class.

I'll also be teaching the International Relations intro (PSC204) and American Foreign Policy (PSC413) during Summer II. Check out the syllabi for all these courses here.

Final exam readings

The final exam will cover the assigned books and the following articles. Realize that the readings since the second exam will be emphasized much more than the readings prior to that exam.

Graham Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis." American Political Science Review. 63 (1969) 689-718.

Gaddis, J. L. “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System.” International Security, Spring, 1986, Vol. 10, No. 4

Mueller, John, “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World.” International Security, Fall, 1988, Vol. 13(2)

Mearsheimer, John, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War.” International Security, Summer 1990, Vol. 15, No. 1.

Wayman, F.W., “Bipolarity and War.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 21, No. 1 (1984), pp. 61-78.

Russett, Bruce M., John R. Oneal, and Michaelene Cox. “Clash of civilizations, or realism and liberalism deja vu? Some evidence.” Journal of Peace Research. Sept 2000 v37 i5 p583

Press, Daryl G., "The Myth of Air Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare," International Security. 26:2 (Fall 2001), 5–44

Posen, Barry R. “Military responses to refugee disasters,” International Security. Summer 1996 v21 n1

Pape, Robert, “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 August 2003: 1-19.

Fearon, James and David Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97(1):75-90.

Fearon, James. “Why do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?” Journal of Peace Research

Gholz, Eugene et al., “Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation.” International Security, Spring 1997, 21(4)

Notes for class -- Grand Strategy of Restraint

Here are the notes on restraint.

Notes for class -- Democracy and Conflict

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes for class -- Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War

Here are the notes for civil war onset, and here are notes looking at civil war duration.

Notes for class -- strategic logic of suicide terrorism

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes for class -- Military Responses to Refugee Crises

Here are the notes for Posen's article on Military Responses to refugee crises.

Notes for class -- Air Power during the Persian Gulf War

Here are the notes for today's class on the article by Daryl Press.

Midterm II -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the second exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 43
Mean score: 81.30
Modes: 84 (3 exams) 93 (3 exams) 99 (3 exams)
Range: 100 to 39 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics include a 15 point curve that I added because of a miscalculation on the test sheet.

NOTE(!!!): I again regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by almost 4 points, on average. Thus, if a student misses four classes, then student is likely to score an 84, holding everything else constant. Attendance matters. The 15 students (almost one-third of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 8 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab exam2

exam2 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
39 | 1 2.33 2.33
56 | 1 2.33 4.65
61 | 1 2.33 6.98
65 | 1 2.33 9.30
67 | 2 4.65 13.95
68 | 1 2.33 16.28
69 | 2 4.65 20.93
70 | 1 2.33 23.26
72 | 1 2.33 25.58
73 | 2 4.65 30.23
74 | 1 2.33 32.56
75 | 2 4.65 37.21
76 | 1 2.33 39.53
77 | 1 2.33 41.86
79 | 1 2.33 44.19
80 | 2 4.65 48.84
84 | 3 6.98 55.81
85 | 1 2.33 58.14
86 | 1 2.33 60.47
87 | 1 2.33 62.79
89 | 1 2.33 65.12
90 | 2 4.65 69.77
91 | 1 2.33 72.09
93 | 3 6.98 79.07
95 | 1 2.33 81.40
97 | 2 4.65 86.05
98 | 2 4.65 90.70
99 | 3 6.98 97.67
100 | 1 2.33 100.00

"Clash of Civilization" notes

Here are the lecture notes for this segment of the class. Note: Students who have difficulty with some of the terms may wish to consult my previous post on political analysis, which is here.

Polarity Notes

Here is the first set of lecture notes on polarity. And here is the second set of notes.

Deterrence Notes

Here is the first set of notes on deterrence. Note that the outline follows the Long Peace article by Gaddis (also available on this blog). The second set of notes is here and is only loosely supported by the readings.

US and Iran

There are a lot of recent articles, mostly from British sources, about possible US actions against Iran. The latest is British PM Tony Blair coming out against military action in Iran. British papers have also mentioned that the US has detailed plans for strikes in Iran. Here is a story covering Iranian reactions.

Does it make sense for the US to have plans for attacks in Iran? Why do you think British papers are the ones leaking this information? Any strategy taking place?

Tensions are definitely high in the Middle East. Here, a US Fleet Commander warns of an unprecedented level of tension in the Persian Gulf. And here, there is a discussion of Syrian moves toward the border with Israel, including new weapons purchases from Russia.

UPDATE: Here is a NYTimes article on increasing armament purchases by Arab states wary of Iran.

Study Tips

I've noticed the recent proliferation of a lot of good guides for students on how to take lecture notes, study for exams, etc..., and I've posted some of the more interesting ones (from my perspective) below:

Note taking and studying:
How to take perfect lecture notes is here.
How to study better is here.

Test taking:
How to study for your next test is here.
How to ace your next test is here.

Writing:
How to avoid using colloquials in writing is here. (Note: I think this is one of the biggest hurdles for undergraduates to overcome!)
Correct punctuation is a good thing.

Cuban Missile Crisis Notes

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis this week in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Here is the first set of notes on Graham Allison.
Here is the second set of notes.

Notes for class -- Analogies at War

Here is the first set of notes based on the Khong book.
Here is the second set.
And here is the final set of notes for the Khong book.

Midterm I -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 44
Mean score: 74.43
Modes: 81 (5 exams) 94 (4 exams) 96 (3 exams)
Range: 98 to 34 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics are pre-curve. I added 2 points to each exam, so the highest grade is now 100. The grade on your test represents the pre-curve grade.

ATTENDANCE: I wrote on the exam the number of absences I have recorded for each student. These are marked in blue with two underlines on the first page.

NOTE(!!!): I regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by 9 points, on average. Thus, missing four classes, and the student scores roughly a 74. Attendance matters - especially for the last test since there were so few readings and the test was based mostly on the notes. The 12 students (one-quarter of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 3 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab midterm1

midterm1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
34 | 1 2.27 2.27
37 | 1 2.27 4.55
41 | 1 2.27 6.82
45 | 2 4.55 11.36
54 | 1 2.27 13.64
55 | 1 2.27 15.91
57 | 1 2.27 18.18
58 | 2 4.55 22.73
59 | 2 4.55 27.27
64 | 2 4.55 31.82
66 | 1 2.27 34.09
67 | 1 2.27 36.36
68 | 1 2.27 38.64
74 | 1 2.27 40.91
77 | 1 2.27 43.18
79 | 2 4.55 47.73
81 | 5 11.36 59.09
82 | 2 4.55 63.64
84 | 2 4.55 68.18
85 | 1 2.27 70.45
87 | 1 2.27 72.73
90 | 2 4.55 77.27
91 | 1 2.27 79.55
93 | 1 2.27 81.82
94 | 4 9.09 90.91
96 | 3 6.82 97.73
98 | 1 2.27 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 44 100.00

Iran and the United States

Here is a very interesting article on the relationship between Iran and the United States. Note the following two paragraphs:

"You are harmful for us. We try to tell politicians in Washington, D.C., please don't do anything in favor of reform or to promote democracy in Iran. Because in 100% of the cases, it benefits the right wing," said Saeed Leylaz, a business consultant and advocate of economic reform and greater dialogue with the West.

"Mr. Ahmadinejad tries to make the international situation worse and worse. And now with the U.N. Security Council resolution, he can say, 'Look, we are in a dangerous position, and nobody can say anything against us, because the enemy is coming into the country.' Exactly like George W. Bush in Washington, D.C. They are helping each other. They need each other, I believe."

Start of the Cold War Notes

Here are the notes on Spanier's interpretation of the start of the Cold War. And here are the notes based on Gaddis.

Here are the notes from Gamson and Modigliani with the tests of Spanier versus Gaddis.

Also, follow this link to the recommended book by Gaddis. It's available on-line via the History E-Book Project.

Week 1 Notes

Here are the notes from the first week of American Foreign Policy.