Short Introduction to Political Analysis

Those in my graduate class should be familiar with the material covered in this post.

Summary Statistics for Exam 2

The results are in for the second exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 19
Mean score: 75.79
Modes: 74 (3 exams), 76 (3 exams) and 88 (3 exams)
Range: 54 to 88 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is no curve for this test.

NOTE(!): I regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by over 3 points, on average. Attendance matters!


. tab test2

test2 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
54 | 1 5.26 5.26
66 | 1 5.26 10.53
68 | 1 5.26 15.79
70 | 2 10.53 26.32
72 | 1 5.26 31.58
74 | 3 15.79 47.37
76 | 3 15.79 63.16
78 | 1 5.26 68.42
82 | 2 10.53 78.95
84 | 1 5.26 84.21
88 | 3 15.79 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 19 100.00

Class Notes -- Chapter 12 (Domestic Institutions and National Performance)

Here are notes for part of today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 11 (Perceptions and Deterrence)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Note that your test has several numbers. The first number represents your total points on the multiple choice (out of 100). The second number is your total for the identify (out of 20). The sum of those two numbers is your raw score for the test (out of 120). I added 10 points to everyone's test, so your final grade is the raw score, plus 10 points, divided by 120. (NOTE: If you participated in the simulation, you should add 12 points to the raw score and then divide by 120.)

Total Number of Exams: 21
Mean score: 94.7
Modes: 98 (2 exams) and 102 (2 exams)
Range: 115 to 65 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics include a 10 point curve that I added.

NOTE(!): I regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by almost 7 points, on average. Thus, if a student misses four classes, then student is likely to score an 72, AFTER the curve, holding everything else constant. Attendance matters!

examgrade | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
65 | 1 4.76 4.76
71 | 1 4.76 9.52
76 | 1 4.76 14.29
86 | 1 4.76 19.05
87 | 1 4.76 23.81
89 | 1 4.76 28.57
90 | 1 4.76 33.33
94 | 1 4.76 38.10
95 | 1 4.76 42.86
96 | 1 4.76 47.62
98 | 2 9.52 57.14
99 | 1 4.76 61.90
100 | 1 4.76 66.67
102 | 2 9.52 76.19
103 | 1 4.76 80.95
104 | 1 4.76 85.71
107 | 1 4.76 90.48
112 | 1 4.76 95.24
115 | 1 4.76 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 21 100.00

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

Here are today's notes for class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Domestic Politics and Strategic Choice)

Here are the notes for Thursday's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 4 (Structural Theories)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 3 (Strategic Interactions)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 2 (Evaluating Arguments)

Here are the notes from today's class.

Syllabus for PSC204 Summer 2007

Here is a copy of the syllabus for this summer's class.

Final exam readings

The final exam will cover the assigned books and the following articles. Realize that the readings since the second exam will be emphasized much more than the readings prior to that exam.

Graham Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis." American Political Science Review. 63 (1969) 689-718.

Gaddis, J. L. “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System.” International Security, Spring, 1986, Vol. 10, No. 4

Mueller, John, “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World.” International Security, Fall, 1988, Vol. 13(2)

Mearsheimer, John, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War.” International Security, Summer 1990, Vol. 15, No. 1.

Wayman, F.W., “Bipolarity and War.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 21, No. 1 (1984), pp. 61-78.

Russett, Bruce M., John R. Oneal, and Michaelene Cox. “Clash of civilizations, or realism and liberalism deja vu? Some evidence.” Journal of Peace Research. Sept 2000 v37 i5 p583

Press, Daryl G., "The Myth of Air Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare," International Security. 26:2 (Fall 2001), 5–44

Posen, Barry R. “Military responses to refugee disasters,” International Security. Summer 1996 v21 n1

Pape, Robert, “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 August 2003: 1-19.

Fearon, James and David Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97(1):75-90.

Fearon, James. “Why do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?” Journal of Peace Research

Gholz, Eugene et al., “Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation.” International Security, Spring 1997, 21(4)

Notes for class -- Grand Strategy of Restraint

Here are the notes on restraint.

Notes for class -- Democracy and Conflict

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes for class -- Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War

Here are the notes for civil war onset, and here are notes looking at civil war duration.

Notes for class -- strategic logic of suicide terrorism

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes for class -- Military Responses to Refugee Crises

Here are the notes for Posen's article on Military Responses to refugee crises.

Notes for class -- Air Power during the Persian Gulf War

Here are the notes for today's class on the article by Daryl Press.

Midterm II -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the second exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 43
Mean score: 81.30
Modes: 84 (3 exams) 93 (3 exams) 99 (3 exams)
Range: 100 to 39 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics include a 15 point curve that I added because of a miscalculation on the test sheet.

NOTE(!!!): I again regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by almost 4 points, on average. Thus, if a student misses four classes, then student is likely to score an 84, holding everything else constant. Attendance matters. The 15 students (almost one-third of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 8 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab exam2

exam2 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
39 | 1 2.33 2.33
56 | 1 2.33 4.65
61 | 1 2.33 6.98
65 | 1 2.33 9.30
67 | 2 4.65 13.95
68 | 1 2.33 16.28
69 | 2 4.65 20.93
70 | 1 2.33 23.26
72 | 1 2.33 25.58
73 | 2 4.65 30.23
74 | 1 2.33 32.56
75 | 2 4.65 37.21
76 | 1 2.33 39.53
77 | 1 2.33 41.86
79 | 1 2.33 44.19
80 | 2 4.65 48.84
84 | 3 6.98 55.81
85 | 1 2.33 58.14
86 | 1 2.33 60.47
87 | 1 2.33 62.79
89 | 1 2.33 65.12
90 | 2 4.65 69.77
91 | 1 2.33 72.09
93 | 3 6.98 79.07
95 | 1 2.33 81.40
97 | 2 4.65 86.05
98 | 2 4.65 90.70
99 | 3 6.98 97.67
100 | 1 2.33 100.00

Midterm II -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the second exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 43
Mean score: 81.30
Modes: 84 (3 exams) 93 (3 exams) 99 (3 exams)
Range: 100 to 39 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics include a 15 point curve that I added because of a miscalculation on the test sheet.

NOTE(!!!): I again regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by almost 4 points, on average. Thus, if a student misses four classes, then student is likely to score an 84, holding everything else constant. Attendance matters. The 15 students (almost one-third of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 8 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab exam2

exam2 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
39 | 1 2.33 2.33
56 | 1 2.33 4.65
61 | 1 2.33 6.98
65 | 1 2.33 9.30
67 | 2 4.65 13.95
68 | 1 2.33 16.28
69 | 2 4.65 20.93
70 | 1 2.33 23.26
72 | 1 2.33 25.58
73 | 2 4.65 30.23
74 | 1 2.33 32.56
75 | 2 4.65 37.21
76 | 1 2.33 39.53
77 | 1 2.33 41.86
79 | 1 2.33 44.19
80 | 2 4.65 48.84
84 | 3 6.98 55.81
85 | 1 2.33 58.14
86 | 1 2.33 60.47
87 | 1 2.33 62.79
89 | 1 2.33 65.12
90 | 2 4.65 69.77
91 | 1 2.33 72.09
93 | 3 6.98 79.07
95 | 1 2.33 81.40
97 | 2 4.65 86.05
98 | 2 4.65 90.70
99 | 3 6.98 97.67
100 | 1 2.33 100.00

Midterm II -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the second exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 43
Mean score: 81.30
Modes: 84 (3 exams) 93 (3 exams) 99 (3 exams)
Range: 100 to 39 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics include a 15 point curve that I added because of a miscalculation on the test sheet.

NOTE(!!!): I again regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by almost 4 points, on average. Thus, if a student misses four classes, then student is likely to score an 84, holding everything else constant. Attendance matters. The 15 students (almost one-third of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 8 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab exam2

exam2 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
39 | 1 2.33 2.33
56 | 1 2.33 4.65
61 | 1 2.33 6.98
65 | 1 2.33 9.30
67 | 2 4.65 13.95
68 | 1 2.33 16.28
69 | 2 4.65 20.93
70 | 1 2.33 23.26
72 | 1 2.33 25.58
73 | 2 4.65 30.23
74 | 1 2.33 32.56
75 | 2 4.65 37.21
76 | 1 2.33 39.53
77 | 1 2.33 41.86
79 | 1 2.33 44.19
80 | 2 4.65 48.84
84 | 3 6.98 55.81
85 | 1 2.33 58.14
86 | 1 2.33 60.47
87 | 1 2.33 62.79
89 | 1 2.33 65.12
90 | 2 4.65 69.77
91 | 1 2.33 72.09
93 | 3 6.98 79.07
95 | 1 2.33 81.40
97 | 2 4.65 86.05
98 | 2 4.65 90.70
99 | 3 6.98 97.67
100 | 1 2.33 100.00

"Clash of Civilization" notes

Here are the lecture notes for this segment of the class. Note: Students who have difficulty with some of the terms may wish to consult my previous post on political analysis, which is here.

Polarity Notes

Here is the first set of lecture notes on polarity. And here is the second set of notes.

Deterrence Notes

Here is the first set of notes on deterrence. Note that the outline follows the Long Peace article by Gaddis (also available on this blog). The second set of notes is here and is only loosely supported by the readings.

US and Iran

There are a lot of recent articles, mostly from British sources, about possible US actions against Iran. The latest is British PM Tony Blair coming out against military action in Iran. British papers have also mentioned that the US has detailed plans for strikes in Iran. Here is a story covering Iranian reactions.

Does it make sense for the US to have plans for attacks in Iran? Why do you think British papers are the ones leaking this information? Any strategy taking place?

Tensions are definitely high in the Middle East. Here, a US Fleet Commander warns of an unprecedented level of tension in the Persian Gulf. And here, there is a discussion of Syrian moves toward the border with Israel, including new weapons purchases from Russia.

UPDATE: Here is a NYTimes article on increasing armament purchases by Arab states wary of Iran.

Study Tips

I've noticed the recent proliferation of a lot of good guides for students on how to take lecture notes, study for exams, etc..., and I've posted some of the more interesting ones (from my perspective) below:

Note taking and studying:
How to take perfect lecture notes is here.
How to study better is here.

Test taking:
How to study for your next test is here.
How to ace your next test is here.

Writing:
How to avoid using colloquials in writing is here. (Note: I think this is one of the biggest hurdles for undergraduates to overcome!)
Correct punctuation is a good thing.

Cuban Missile Crisis Notes

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis this week in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Here is the first set of notes on Graham Allison.
Here is the second set of notes.

Notes for class -- Analogies at War

Here is the first set of notes based on the Khong book.
Here is the second set.
And here is the final set of notes for the Khong book.

Midterm I -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 44
Mean score: 74.43
Modes: 81 (5 exams) 94 (4 exams) 96 (3 exams)
Range: 98 to 34 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics are pre-curve. I added 2 points to each exam, so the highest grade is now 100. The grade on your test represents the pre-curve grade.

ATTENDANCE: I wrote on the exam the number of absences I have recorded for each student. These are marked in blue with two underlines on the first page.

NOTE(!!!): I regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by 9 points, on average. Thus, missing four classes, and the student scores roughly a 74. Attendance matters - especially for the last test since there were so few readings and the test was based mostly on the notes. The 12 students (one-quarter of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 3 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab midterm1

midterm1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
34 | 1 2.27 2.27
37 | 1 2.27 4.55
41 | 1 2.27 6.82
45 | 2 4.55 11.36
54 | 1 2.27 13.64
55 | 1 2.27 15.91
57 | 1 2.27 18.18
58 | 2 4.55 22.73
59 | 2 4.55 27.27
64 | 2 4.55 31.82
66 | 1 2.27 34.09
67 | 1 2.27 36.36
68 | 1 2.27 38.64
74 | 1 2.27 40.91
77 | 1 2.27 43.18
79 | 2 4.55 47.73
81 | 5 11.36 59.09
82 | 2 4.55 63.64
84 | 2 4.55 68.18
85 | 1 2.27 70.45
87 | 1 2.27 72.73
90 | 2 4.55 77.27
91 | 1 2.27 79.55
93 | 1 2.27 81.82
94 | 4 9.09 90.91
96 | 3 6.82 97.73
98 | 1 2.27 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 44 100.00

Iran and the United States

Here is a very interesting article on the relationship between Iran and the United States. Note the following two paragraphs:

"You are harmful for us. We try to tell politicians in Washington, D.C., please don't do anything in favor of reform or to promote democracy in Iran. Because in 100% of the cases, it benefits the right wing," said Saeed Leylaz, a business consultant and advocate of economic reform and greater dialogue with the West.

"Mr. Ahmadinejad tries to make the international situation worse and worse. And now with the U.N. Security Council resolution, he can say, 'Look, we are in a dangerous position, and nobody can say anything against us, because the enemy is coming into the country.' Exactly like George W. Bush in Washington, D.C. They are helping each other. They need each other, I believe."

Start of the Cold War Notes

Here are the notes on Spanier's interpretation of the start of the Cold War. And here are the notes based on Gaddis.

Here are the notes from Gamson and Modigliani with the tests of Spanier versus Gaddis.

Also, follow this link to the recommended book by Gaddis. It's available on-line via the History E-Book Project.

Week 1 Notes

Here are the notes from the first week of American Foreign Policy.

And so it begins...

Nuclear proliferation seems increasingly more likely in the Middle East. Here is a story that King Abdullah II of Jordan is thinking of pursuing nuclear power for peaceful means.

Which only makes sense if you think about their strategic situation. You have Iran to the east pursuing nuclear power, and Iranian backed Hamas continuing a stand-off against a nuclear Israel. Here is a decent map of the area.

Here is some of what King Abdullah had to say in response to this question:
Do you see a clear link between the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian nuclear threat and the threat of terrorism?

"Through Hamas, Iran has been able to buy itself a seat on the table in talking about the Palestinian issue. And, as a result, through Hamas it does play a role in the issue of the Palestinians, as strange as that should sound.

"If we start moving the process forward, then there's less reason for engagement on the Palestinian issue.

"But, the rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region. Where I think Jordan was saying, 'we'd like to have a nuclear-free zone in the area,' after this summer, everybody's going for nuclear programs.

"The Egyptians are looking for a nuclear program. The GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] are looking at one, and we are actually looking at nuclear power for peaceful and energy purposes. We've been discussing it with the West."

Another way of looking at the trade-offs in American Foreign Policy...

Here is the story from the NYTimes.

Another story from the NYTimes (here) about retired US generals testifying before a Senate Committee. Note the following line:

“There is no way to win a war that is not in your interests." That's from Lt. Gen. William E. Odom, a former director of the National Security Agency. He said the principal beneficiary of the war was Iran and Al Qaeda, not the United States.

PS413 Simulation Roles and Assignment

Here are a list of roles for the simulation. Here is the paper assignment sheet.

Remember: the paper is due January 26th at 1:00pm!

First Reading for PS413/513 Now Available!

Dear American Foreign Policy Students--

UPDATE (1/17): The Michalak chapter is now available here.

The first reading (the Michalak chapter) is not available and won't be before it's due on the syllabus. So, just cross that reading off the list of additional readings, and we'll cover most of the points in class this week. Continue reading the Hook and Spanier book.

Syllabus for PSC644 International Conflict

Here is the syllabus for the graduate-level International Conflict course.

NOTE: Most of the readings from this syllabus refer to journal articles that are available using the electronic journals link at UA (http://www.lib.ua.edu/ejournals/). A few of the journals are not listed on this source, or no coverage exists for certain years of the journal, so students will have to go to the library to make copies of these articles. Finally, ome of the readings refer to book chapters that will be distributed to the class as the semester progresses.