US and Iran

There are a lot of recent articles, mostly from British sources, about possible US actions against Iran. The latest is British PM Tony Blair coming out against military action in Iran. British papers have also mentioned that the US has detailed plans for strikes in Iran. Here is a story covering Iranian reactions.

Does it make sense for the US to have plans for attacks in Iran? Why do you think British papers are the ones leaking this information? Any strategy taking place?

Tensions are definitely high in the Middle East. Here, a US Fleet Commander warns of an unprecedented level of tension in the Persian Gulf. And here, there is a discussion of Syrian moves toward the border with Israel, including new weapons purchases from Russia.

UPDATE: Here is a NYTimes article on increasing armament purchases by Arab states wary of Iran.

Study Tips

I've noticed the recent proliferation of a lot of good guides for students on how to take lecture notes, study for exams, etc..., and I've posted some of the more interesting ones (from my perspective) below:

Note taking and studying:
How to take perfect lecture notes is here.
How to study better is here.

Test taking:
How to study for your next test is here.
How to ace your next test is here.

Writing:
How to avoid using colloquials in writing is here. (Note: I think this is one of the biggest hurdles for undergraduates to overcome!)
Correct punctuation is a good thing.

Cuban Missile Crisis Notes

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis this week in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Here is the first set of notes on Graham Allison.
Here is the second set of notes.

Notes for class -- Analogies at War

Here is the first set of notes based on the Khong book.
Here is the second set.
And here is the final set of notes for the Khong book.

Midterm I -- Summary Statistics

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 44
Mean score: 74.43
Modes: 81 (5 exams) 94 (4 exams) 96 (3 exams)
Range: 98 to 34 (the full description is below)

CURVE: These statistics are pre-curve. I added 2 points to each exam, so the highest grade is now 100. The grade on your test represents the pre-curve grade.

ATTENDANCE: I wrote on the exam the number of absences I have recorded for each student. These are marked in blue with two underlines on the first page.

NOTE(!!!): I regressed the effect of attendance on overall grade for the exam. After controlling for several other factors, missing one class decreased a test score by 9 points, on average. Thus, missing four classes, and the student scores roughly a 74. Attendance matters - especially for the last test since there were so few readings and the test was based mostly on the notes. The 12 students (one-quarter of the class) who scored an A- or above on the exam only missed a total of 3 classes total among them!

Here is the distribution of grades:

. tab midterm1

midterm1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
34 | 1 2.27 2.27
37 | 1 2.27 4.55
41 | 1 2.27 6.82
45 | 2 4.55 11.36
54 | 1 2.27 13.64
55 | 1 2.27 15.91
57 | 1 2.27 18.18
58 | 2 4.55 22.73
59 | 2 4.55 27.27
64 | 2 4.55 31.82
66 | 1 2.27 34.09
67 | 1 2.27 36.36
68 | 1 2.27 38.64
74 | 1 2.27 40.91
77 | 1 2.27 43.18
79 | 2 4.55 47.73
81 | 5 11.36 59.09
82 | 2 4.55 63.64
84 | 2 4.55 68.18
85 | 1 2.27 70.45
87 | 1 2.27 72.73
90 | 2 4.55 77.27
91 | 1 2.27 79.55
93 | 1 2.27 81.82
94 | 4 9.09 90.91
96 | 3 6.82 97.73
98 | 1 2.27 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 44 100.00

Iran and the United States

Here is a very interesting article on the relationship between Iran and the United States. Note the following two paragraphs:

"You are harmful for us. We try to tell politicians in Washington, D.C., please don't do anything in favor of reform or to promote democracy in Iran. Because in 100% of the cases, it benefits the right wing," said Saeed Leylaz, a business consultant and advocate of economic reform and greater dialogue with the West.

"Mr. Ahmadinejad tries to make the international situation worse and worse. And now with the U.N. Security Council resolution, he can say, 'Look, we are in a dangerous position, and nobody can say anything against us, because the enemy is coming into the country.' Exactly like George W. Bush in Washington, D.C. They are helping each other. They need each other, I believe."