Belgium Study Abroad 2009

Don't forget: email me (dmgibler (at) bama.ua.edu) if you are interested in the Belgium study abroad program for 2009.

Copies of Tests 1 and 2

For interested students: test #1 and test #2 are now available. Note that these are test questions only. The answers might not match your myBama accounts because of differences across test versions (e.g., you may have taken test 1-C, but the link goes to test 1-A).

Random News (Africa Edition)

Have you heard yet about the riots in Nigeria? Some interesting comparisons between news coverage of the riots and the terrorism in Mumbai.

Sending "messengers of death" to the DRC?

Class Notes -- Chapter 16 (structural theories of war)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Restraint

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 2

Summary stats for test #2:

Max-- 96
Min-- 45
Mean-- 77
Median-- 81

Here is a copy of the exam key (in case you haven't seen it before).

Random Things Political

Ballot design for dummies: lizard people?

For BdM fans, there is a documentary about him running on the history channel. The next Nostradamus? Hmmm. Next showing, Saturday, December 6th.

Class Notes -- Chapter 15 (alliances)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 13 (IPE)

Here are the notes from today's class.

Class Notes -- Military Interventions and Refugee Disasters

Here are the notes for today's class.

Graduate Student Seminar on Publication

Here are the notes from today's seminar to graduate students on publication in political science.

Revised Class Schedule

Here is the revised class schedule for the few remaining weeks of class:

Tuesday, November 18th-- Chapter 14
Thursday, November 20th-- Chapter 13
Tuesday, November 25th-- Chapter 13 (continued)
Tuesday. December 2nd-- Chapter 15
Thursday, December 4th-- Chapter 16

Class Notes -- Chapter 14 (Intl Law and Organizations)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Two Posts on Writing (and some funnies...)

Most irritating phrases in the English language, thanks to Oxford (and the Monkey Cage), here.

What are the possible benefits of writing well? Do you know who Watson and Crick are? How about Avery, MacLeod and McCarty? Take a look at the discussion on writing here.

Other funnies-- Obama must give up his Blackberry, and Sarkozy stops Putin in his tracks.

Class Notes -- Air Power and the (First) Persian Gulf War

Here are the notes for today's class.

PSC413 Revised Schedule

Here is the revised schedule for the last few weeks of the semester. Note well-- you can only access the articles through the provided links while on a campus computer.

Tuesday, November 18th--

Press, Daryl G., "The Myth of Air Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare," International Security. 26:2 (Fall 2001), 5–44

Thursday, November 20th--

Posen, Barry R. “Military responses to refugee disasters,” International Security.
Summer 1996 v21 n1

Tuesday, November 25th--

Discussion of US Interventionism

Tuesday, December 2nd--

Pape, Robert, “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism”, American Political
Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 August 2003: 1-19.

Tuesday, December 4th--

Gholz, Eugene et al., “Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the
Face of Temptation.” International Security, Spring 1997, 21(4)

Politics and the Media

Since today is election day, I thought it'd be nice to take a look at who would be covering the election all day. There are actually quite a few interesting recent analyses about how the US media covers politics, but below are two that caught my eye:

First, here is a link to an analysis of country coverage by the New York Times (thanks to Marginal Revolution). And here is an analysis of the major network polls. Does this ordering make sense? Why might there be bias, even in polling?

Class Notes -- Chapter 12 (Domestic Institutions and National Performance)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Polarity and AFP part deux

Here are the notes for today's class.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words...

from Dani Rodrik's blog... the credit crisis in one picture.

Class Notes -- Chapter 11 (Perceptions and Deterrence)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Polarity and AFP

Here are the notes for today's class.

More random news...

Here is a nice link for those wanting to maximize their influence this election. But if you want to just watch pretty pictures that also have to do with international relations, then check out this video that maps flights across the globe.

Talk at the Rotary Club

Today at noon I'll be giving a talk at the Rotary Club of Tuscaloosa. For a link to the presentation, click here.

Note to PSC413 students: this has much to do with American Foreign Policy!

World War II Posters

Here is a link to some amazing World War II posters. Notice the rhetoric being used but also to how many facets of life the war is supposed to affect...

Class Notes -- Deterrence

Here are the notes for today's class.

Random News of the Day

A recent study of college students and where they should vote has some interesting implications regarding local voting rules:

Thus, in the extreme, the “rules” might even depend on when you showed up in the registrar’s office and whom you spoke to.

Andrew Gelman has more on ideologies among the US electorate. Notice how different the House and Senate are from general public opinion. Why do you think this is the case?

Do you want to know how much professors get to study stuff like the above? An all too true comic about academic salaries versus athletics salaries is here.

Class Notes -- Chapter 10 (Perceptions)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- The Long Peace

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The summary statistics for exam #1 are below. Here is a copy of the exam. You can use myBama to access the answers to individual answers in the multiple choice.

Number of students taking the exam: 61
Total Points Available: 98 (I added 2 points to every exam as a curve)
Mean score: 72 (74 after curve)
Maximum score: 92 (94)
Minimum score: 29 (31)
Median score: 77 (79)

Here is a breakdown by score:

94
92
92
92
90
90
89
89
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
85
84
83
83
82
82
82
82
82
81
81
81
81
81
80
79
79
77
76
75
74
74
73
72
72
71
71
71
71
68
67
66
66
65
65
63
61
56
54
49
49
47
45
44
43
31

Study Abroad Opportunity in Belgium

Here is a link to a study abroad opportunity in Brussels, Belgium. Brussels is of course the seat to most of the European Union institutions and also the headquarters for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Interested students should contact me at dmgibler (@) bama.ua.edu and also visit this website, which describes the program.

Class Notes -- Cuban Missile Crisis (Bureaucratic Politics)

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis this week in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Class notes for today are here.

UPDATE: Link to the Allison article here.

Random Post of the Day

It's an election year, so more stuff about the US elections:

Here is a map of the world's vote for US President. What's the rationale for these "voters"? And from InsideHigherEd.com, here is a report of an interesting study:

Students get more liberal while they’re in college — but a new study suggests that their peers, not professors, seem to be the reason why, according to the Associated Press. The study, by the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles, finds evidence to back up the assertion that many students adopt more liberal positions on many issues from their freshman to their junior year. But the researchers attribute the shifts more to students’ exposure to left-leaning peer groups than to the views of their professors, the wire service reports.

Class Notes -- Chapter 9 (preferences)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Miscellany

Might it be the case that the object of terrorism is a long war, intended to wear down the victim and change the status quo slowly? Of course, the recent financial mess may just be but a blip if we consider long-term economic trends. What are the immediate effects of a downturn? Perhaps there'll be more students entering graduate school.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power) continued

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes on Khong (part II)

Here are the notes for today's class.

The International Effects of the Bailout?

We know the bailout is huge, so what are the opportunity costs of such a plan? Here is an analysis with regard to Africa. Be sure to follow the links through to look at the level of investment in Africa over the past 8 years.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Use of Analogies in AFP

Here are the class notes for today.

International Markets

It's going to be bumpy economic ride according to Greg Mankiw, economist at Harvard. Of course, if you have money to invest, maybe a good place is Africa these days? Check out this Empowerment Lab project. Wondering how big the proposed bailout would be? Check here for an interesting chart.

So how do you think these economic events are going to affect those in college today? Any ideas?

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam in PSC204, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 150
Mean score: 68.1
Range: 28 to 96 (question #44 was omitted because of an error)

UPDATE: Access your test score here, and here is a copy of the test questions.

Full details of student distribution:

grade | Freq. %age Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
28 | 1 0.67 0.67
33 | 1 0.67 1.33
36 | 1 0.67 2.00
39 | 1 0.67 2.67
42 | 1 0.67 3.33
44 | 1 0.67 4.00
46 | 1 0.67 4.67
47 | 1 0.67 5.33
48 | 2 1.33 6.67
49 | 1 0.67 7.33
50 | 2 1.33 8.67
52 | 1 0.67 9.33
54 | 3 2.00 11.33
55 | 3 2.00 13.33
56 | 3 2.00 15.33
57 | 4 2.67 18.00
58 | 4 2.67 20.67
59 | 4 2.67 23.33
60 | 7 4.67 28.00
61 | 3 2.00 30.00
62 | 3 2.00 32.00
63 | 9 6.00 38.00
64 | 3 2.00 40.00
65 | 3 2.00 42.00
66 | 3 2.00 44.00
67 | 4 2.67 46.67
68 | 6 4.00 50.67
69 | 7 4.67 55.33
70 | 4 2.67 58.00
71 | 5 3.33 61.33
72 | 4 2.67 64.00
73 | 1 0.67 64.67
74 | 2 1.33 66.00
75 | 5 3.33 69.33
76 | 5 3.33 72.67
77 | 6 4.00 76.67
78 | 2 1.33 78.00
79 | 4 2.67 80.67
80 | 2 1.33 82.00
81 | 4 2.67 84.67
82 | 4 2.67 87.33
83 | 6 4.00 91.33
84 | 1 0.67 92.00
85 | 1 0.67 92.67
86 | 2 1.33 94.00
88 | 1 0.67 94.67
89 | 1 0.67 95.33
91 | 3 2.00 97.33
92 | 1 0.67 98.00
95 | 2 1.33 99.33
96 | 1 0.67 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 150 100.00

More on the troop surge

Here is a link to some interesting research on the troop surge in Iraq. Take special note of the assumptions they're making regarding their data.

And for those who enjoy a bit of an historical perspective on things... here are some old Marlboro ads. Smoke up, Mom!

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Voter Turnout by Age

Interesting graph of who votes is here. Could the low voter turnout be because all the youngsters were using their Blackberrys? 35% of respondents would give up their spouse rather than their PDA. More:

• 87% of those interviewed admit that they bring their PDA or smartphone to the bedroom at night.
• 84% check their email right before nodding off.
• 80% check their email as soon as they wake up.
• 62% claim they actually love their PDA or smartphone

Website supporting the Principles... Textbook

Here is a website that has quizzes, study guides, etc..., that support the Principles textbook by Bueno de Mesquita. It seems like a good resource for study before the test.

UPDATE: I've put two copies of the textbook and two copies of the workbook on reserve at Gorgas Library. They're available for full day checkout, so make sure to beat the rush and review them now if you need to do so.

Political Science Research on Misinformation and Political Campaigns

The use of misinformation in political campaigning is a hot topic right now. John Sides at The Monkey Cage highlights a Washington Post article that discusses some recent experimental research.

From the WashPo article:

In experiments conducted by political scientist John Bullock at Yale University, volunteers were given various items of political misinformation from real life. One group of volunteers was shown a transcript of an ad created by NARAL Pro-Choice America that accused John G. Roberts Jr., President Bush's nominee to the Supreme Court at the time, of "supporting violent fringe groups and a convicted clinic bomber."...

Bullock then showed volunteers a refutation of the ad by abortion-rights supporters. He also told the volunteers that the advocacy group had withdrawn the ad. Although 56 percent of Democrats had originally disapproved of Roberts before hearing the misinformation, 80 percent of Democrats disapproved of the Supreme Court nominee afterward. Upon hearing the refutation, Democratic disapproval of Roberts dropped only to 72 percent.

Republican disapproval of Roberts rose after hearing the misinformation but vanished upon hearing the correct information. The damaging charge, in other words, continued to have an effect even after it was debunked among precisely those people predisposed to buy the bad information in the first place.

There also may be a "backfire effect" in which refutation reinforces the original misinformation:

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A paper by John Bullock is here. Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler’s paper is here. AFP students should think about the perseverance effect here when we talk about Khong's book.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Domestic Politics and Strategic Choice)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gamson and Modigliani

Here are the notes for today's class.

Surge or Surveillance?

About a week old, but here's a link to a description of Bob Woodward's new book. Note two things-- first, the US apparently spied heavily on the new Iraqi administration, and second, Woodward claims heavy surveillance in general is more responsible than the troop surge for the decline in violence in Iraq recently.

Khong book

Here is a very limited preview of the Khong book. If you're having trouble locating a copy in the bookstore, you may want to use this to keep up with the class. However, definitely don't depend on this preview for the test!!

Link to Gaddis' book

Here is a link to Gaddis' argument on the start of the Cold War. Note that you cannot print from these pages. So, if you'd like a hardcopy, you can go to the library or order a copy for yourself.

[N.B.: I'll only test from Gaddis based on what was covered in class. I will not pull questions from the book. The link is only provided in case you didn't understand part of the argument.]

The End of the World (and Other Things)

So, the end of the world could be tomorrow, if things at CERN don't go well. If the world doesn't in, you may want to check out this description of a shipping container that's traversing the globe. It's geeky, of course, but very cool, too.

Last, be sure not to listen to those naysayers predicting dire consequences if you vote (or even register to vote).

UPDATE (9/10): Apparently, the world did NOT end today. Here is the story, with some cool maps and graphics.

Class Notes -- Chapter 4 (Structural Theories)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gaddis and the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes for today's class.

Georgia, Russia, and the US

Back to international relations and American Foreign Policy...

VP Dick Cheney was in Georgia yesterday affirming US support for Saakashvili's government. After pledging $1B (that's billion) in reconstruction aid for the country, Mr. Cheney is now suggesting that the US would encourage Georgian entry to NATO.

Here are some questions to consider in light of what we're talking about in class: Why give so much aid to Georgia and how do you think this deal affects Russian decision-making? Is it a credible commitment to the country? NATO membership carries a pledge to defend a country against attack. Do you think NATO would actually allow Georgian entry in the near future? If not, then why would the VP make this statement?

Also, there's a large literature on the effects of aid, the promotion of democracy and support of foreign leaders (democratic or otherwise). For my take on this literature, see this recent paper.

Palin's Speech and Nixon's Checkers Speech

Here's an interesting point about the GOP VP candidate's speech last night. As Philip Kilnker puts it, the parallels to Nixon's "Checkers" speech are "striking"...

Speaker on Friday

UA will host a very interesting speaker at 2pm on Friday--

the College will have a very special guest on campus this week, National Academy of Science and UA Alumnus Michael Oldstone. He will present a lecture “How Viruses Changed our Country, Continent and Culture: Past, Present and Future Plagues,” at 2 p.m. Sept. 5 in 127 Biology Building. We hope you will attend if possible and encourage your students to do so as well.

For more information, check here.
And no, you will not get extra credit for attending-- well, at least no extra credit in class, perhaps extra credit in life?

Do VP choices matter?

Andrew Gelman, a statistician at Columbia University says no. Here and here.

How did we come to have lectures at universities?

Here is a really interesting post by economist, Brad DeLong.

Class Notes -- Chapter 3 (Strategic Interactions)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Spanier and the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes for today's class.

No Class Thursday, August 28, 2008

I'll be at the American Political Science Association (APSA) conference in Boston this weekend, so no class on Thursday.

"House Effects" in Polling

Since it's an election year, we'll be talking a lot about the presidential election and its effects on International Relations and American Foreign Policy. To start this discussion, considering this really interesting post about "house effects" in the polling data. Here is a bit more complicated (but also very interesting!!) post on how to think about polling results.

Class Notes -- Chapter 2 (Evaluating Theories)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- World Views in AFP

Here are the notes for today's class.

Worldviews and Foreign Policy

Here is the Michalak reading for Tuesday's American Foreign Policy class.

Syllabus for PSC204, International Relations

Here is the syllabus for PSC204, International Relations, Fall 2008.

Syllabus for PSC413, American Foreign Policy

Here is the syllabus for PSC413, American Foreign Policy, during the Fall 2008 semester.

Class Notes -- Grand Strategy and Restraint

Here are the notes for today's class.

PSC413 Final Exam Questions

Here are possible questions for the final exam Friday, August 8th.

PSC204 Final Exam Questions

Here are 10 possible exam questions for PSC204. Good luck!

Class Notes -- Terrorism

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 2

The results are in for the second exam. Here is an answer key for the exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 24
Mean score: 76.25 (after the curve)
Range: 53 to 104 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 6 point curve for this test.

UPDATED data below...

var1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
53 | 1 4.17 4.17
58 | 2 8.33 12.50
62 | 2 8.33 20.83
65 | 1 4.17 25.00
69 | 1 4.17 29.17
70 | 1 4.17 33.33
71 | 1 4.17 37.50
73 | 1 4.17 41.67
77 | 1 4.17 45.83
78 | 2 8.33 54.17
79 | 1 4.17 58.33
80 | 2 8.33 66.67
81 | 1 4.17 70.83
83 | 1 4.17 75.00
84 | 1 4.17 79.17
88 | 1 4.17 83.33
89 | 1 4.17 87.50
91 | 1 4.17 91.67
97 | 1 4.17 95.83
104 | 1 4.17 100.00

Class Notes -- Air Power and also Refuge Crises

Here are the notes for today's class: part I and part II.

Class Notes - Polarity II

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes - Polarity

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 13 (Trade)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Notes on MAD

Here are the notes for today's class.

Cuban Missile Crisis Notes

We're covering decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis today in class, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at JFK's speech that introduced the quarantine. Here is a video clip of the speech, and here is the text.

Here is the first set of notes on Graham Allison. The second set of notes will be delivered in class (sorry, no electronic copy).

Class Notes -- Khong and the Vietnam War (Part II)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 9 (Preferences)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Khong and the Vietnam War

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 8 (Limits to Power)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 24
Mean score: 77.1 (after the curve)
Range: 36 to 96 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 12 point curve for this test. Note that there will NOT be a curve on the next test.

Score # %age Rank

36 | 1 4.17 4.17
56 | 1 4.17 8.33
58 | 1 4.17 12.50
66 | 1 4.17 16.67
68 | 1 4.17 20.83
70 | 2 8.33 29.17
74 | 1 4.17 33.33
76 | 1 4.17 37.50
77 | 2 8.33 45.83
78 | 2 8.33 54.17
82 | 1 4.17 58.33
84 | 2 8.33 66.67
85 | 1 4.17 70.83
86 | 2 8.33 79.17
88 | 1 4.17 83.33
90 | 1 4.17 87.50
92 | 1 4.17 91.67
94 | 1 4.17 95.83
96 | 1 4.17 100.00

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 11
Mean score: 75.9 (after the curve)
Range: 52.5 to 91.7 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is a 15 point curve for this test. Note that there will NOT be a curve on the next test.

NOTE: The correlation between attendance and score on this exam was VERY strong-- 0.73.

Score # %age Rank
52.5 | 1 9.09 9.09
57.5 | 1 9.09 18.18
63.3 | 1 9.09 27.27
66.7 | 1 9.09 36.36
72.5 | 1 9.09 45.45
80 | 1 9.09 54.55
85 | 1 9.09 63.64
86.7 | 1 9.09 72.73
87.5 | 1 9.09 81.82
91.7 | 2 18.18 100.00

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

Here are today's class notes on power.

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

Here are the notes for today's class on domestic politics and the strategic perspective.

Testing Realist v. Liberal on the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Bureaucratic Politics and Decisionmaking)

Here are the notes for today's class on bureaucratic politics.

Liberal Understanding of the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes on Gaddis' argument.

Class Notes -- Chapter 4 (Structural Theories)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Realist Understanding of Start of Cold War

Here are the notes from today's class.

Class Notes -- Chapter 3 (Strategic Interactions)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Worldviews in American Foreign Policy

Here are the notes for today's class.

Evaluating Theories

Here are the notes for today's class on Evaluating Theories (Chapter 2).

Reading for Tomorrow

Here is the Michalak reading for tomorrow's PSC413 American Foreign Policy class.

Syllabus for PSC413 American Foreign Policy

Here is the syllabus for PSC413 American Foreign Policy, Summer II 2008.

Syllabus for PSC204 International Relations

Here is the syllabus for PSC204 International Relations for the Summer II term.

Notes on Civil Wars

Here are the notes from today's class.

More random news...

Here is a funny radio segment from a South African morning radio program, as they call the (fictitious) answering service at the Embassy of Zimbabwe. (from Chris Blattman's Blog)

Here is an analysis of votes made by Senators Clinton and Obama in the US Senate: both are left-of-center, almost identical, and mainstream for the democratic party. (thanks to Kids Prefer Cheese)

Class Notes -- Territorial Threat and the Democratic Peace

Here are today's notes.

Cheating in the Russian Elections

Here is a link to an analysis of possible Russian election fraud. Interesting analysis and interesting ramifications, if true...

Class Notes -- Domestic level effects of international conflct

Here are notes for today's class.

Interesting study on prejudice

Here is a post on how to discover prejudice in polling responses.

Project #2

Here is the description of Project #2.

UPDATE: Here is the .pdf copy of the project instructions. And of course, here is the link to Adobe Reader.

Class Notes -- Crises (continued)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Another argument for free trade?

Here is a description of a report on the decline of burglaries in the US. Note the relationship between price and crime; note also the effects of price increases on goods versus services.

Interim and Summer Class Schedule Adverts

If you're interested in studying the causes and effects of international conflict in the Middle East, then check out my Interim class.

I'll also be teaching the International Relations intro (PSC204) and American Foreign Policy (PSC413) during Summer II. Check out the syllabi for all these courses here.

Speaker from the US State Department

Meet U.S. State Department
Foreign Service Officer
Greg Morrison

A native of Alabama

Thursday, March 27 at 4:00p.m.

Ferguson Forum Room (Rm. 360)

Mr. Morrison’s recent postings have been in Armenia and Syria

Bring your questions!

Sponsored by the International Honors Program
and Capstone International

Random Post of the Day

A bbq/stir-fry index.

Crises Notes

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 48
Mean score: 79.68
Range: 57.5 to 95.1 (the full description is below)

CURVE: There is no curve for this test.


. tab test1

test1 | Freq. Percent Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
57.55% | 1 2.08 2.08
65.60% | 1 2.08 4.17
65.80% | 1 2.08 6.25
68.25% | 1 2.08 8.33
68.60% | 1 2.08 10.42
68.85% | 1 2.08 12.50
69.55% | 1 2.08 14.58
71.75% | 1 2.08 16.67
72.50% | 1 2.08 18.75
73.80% | 1 2.08 20.83
74.50% | 1 2.08 22.92
74.60% | 1 2.08 25.00
76.05% | 2 4.17 29.17
76.60% | 1 2.08 31.25
77.05% | 1 2.08 33.33
77.10% | 1 2.08 35.42
77.55% | 2 4.17 39.58
78.50% | 1 2.08 41.67
78.85% | 1 2.08 43.75
79.05% | 1 2.08 45.83
79.50% | 2 4.17 50.00
79.60% | 1 2.08 52.08
79.80% | 1 2.08 54.17
80.30% | 1 2.08 56.25
81.05% | 2 4.17 60.42
81.30% | 1 2.08 62.50
82.00% | 1 2.08 64.58
82.25% | 1 2.08 66.67
82.50% | 1 2.08 68.75
83.00% | 1 2.08 70.83
83.05% | 1 2.08 72.92
85.35% | 1 2.08 75.00
86.10% | 1 2.08 77.08
86.60% | 1 2.08 79.17
88.05% | 1 2.08 81.25
88.60% | 1 2.08 83.33
89.30% | 2 4.17 87.50
89.60% | 1 2.08 89.58
89.75% | 1 2.08 91.67
91.75% | 1 2.08 93.75
92.05% | 1 2.08 95.83
92.50% | 1 2.08 97.92
95.10% | 1 2.08 100.00

Random Posts of the Day

First, in lighter news, check out these maps of the relationship between Walmarts and Starbucks. How do you explain the negative correlation?

Second, and probably more appropriate for this class, here and here are some stories about the border clashes between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Here is a story about the recent Turkish rout of PKK forces in Iraq.

Arms Race Notes

Here are the notes for today's class.

Interesting GDP data...

Note the differences between what country people in the US think is #1 and what country actually is #1.

Alliance Notes

Here are the notes for today's class.

New Freedom House Data -- 2007 was not a good year...

Here is a description of the 2007 Freedom House data rating the level of democracy in countries around the world. Apparently, 2007 was not a very good year for the advancement of democracy.

Perhaps things will change with Castro stepping down?

Here is a summary quote from the report:

The year 2007 was marked by a notable setback for global freedom. The decline, which was reflected in reversals in one-fifth of the world’s countries, was most pronounced in South Asia, but also reached significant levels in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It affected a substantial number of large and politically important countries—including Russia, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Venezuela—whose declines have wider regional and global implications. Other countries experienced reversals after a period of progress toward democracy, including pivotal states in the Arab Middle East. While many more countries suffered declines than registered improvements, the degree of change reflected in some countries was modest while in others the decline was more substantial. …[The] results for 2007 marked the second consecutive year in which the survey registered a decline in freedom, representing the first two-year setback in the past 15 years. In all, nearly four times as many countries showed significant declines during the year as registered improvements.

Class Notes - Steps to War Model

Here are the notes for today's class.

Remember: 1) Test this Thursday; 2) Bibliography for project next Thursday.

The effects of a decentralized al-Qa'ida

So why does the US often report that "high level al-Qa'ida operatives" have been killed or captured? How many are there?

This article in US News on the decentralizaed structure of terrorist organizations, al-Qa'ida in particular, has been mentioned quite a bit (see here and here for example). The Monkey Cage builds on this article and points to the academic research behind the argument-- for example, a recent International Studies Quarterly article by Shaprio and Siegel which argues:

The puzzle for traditional perspectives on terrorist financial and logistical systems is that groups, which are purportedly organized to carry out attacks often provide inadequate funds to their operatives. … suppose that the members of a terrorist support network, middlemen, were not uniformly driven by mission accomplishment, but that some were driven by monetary rewards.

According to Shapiro's other work, al-Qa'ida has often been concerned with management issues. However, after the forced decentralization of the hierarchical structure in late 2002, monitoring of terrorist agents became problematic:

From the mid-1990s through late-2001, al-Qa’ida made every effort to become a fully bureaucratized organization, complete with employment contracts specifying vacation policies, explicitly documented roles and responsibilities for different jobs including detailed descriptions of the experiences required for senior leadership roles, security memos written by a specialized security committee,14 and standardized questionnares for those arriving at training camps. Al-Qa’ida did not decide to decentralize until 2002, following the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan and the arrest of a number of key al-Qa’ida leaders … In response these and other key losses, al-Qa’ida allegedly convened a strategic summit in northern Iran in November 2002, at which the group’s consultative council decided that it could no longer operate as a hierarchy, but instead would have to decentralize. Essentially, al-Qa’ida traded operational control and financial efficiencies for security and organizational survival.

So what does all this mean for the US ability to capture top operatives? As Henry Farrell points out:

Skeptics, ditch-hurlers and finger-pointers have suggested that the US may have slightly exaggerated the importance of these kills, going so far as to draw rather unkind comparisons between the life prospects (a) of someone appointed to the position of third-in-command in al-Qaeda, and (b) of someone appointed as drummer in Spinal Tap. But a less cynical take is possible. Perhaps, given the problems outlined above, Al-Qaeda (new model) needs lots and lots of executive vice-presidents for financial control and auditing to try to keep track of what their various subcontractors are up to.

Notes on Power Politics

Here are today's notes for class.

Reminders:
1) Next Thursday, 2/21 is the first test.
2) On 2/28, the bibliography for the project is due.

Instructions for Project #1

I've created a web site that describes the project in great detail.
The site can be found here.

If you have questions about the project, we can discuss them on
Tuesday before class.

Euro accepted here...

Reuters (via Drudge) describes how some New York City retailers are hanging signs that they will begin accepting Euros rather than dollars. Is this a bad thing?

From the article: The increasingly weak U.S. dollar, once considered the king among currencies, has brought waves of European tourists to New York with money to burn and looking to take advantage of hugely favorable exchange rates. "We didn't realize we would take so much in and there were that many people traveling or having euros to bring in. But some days, you'd be surprised at how many euros you get," Chu said.

Class Notes -- War Puzzle

Here are the notes on the introductory chapter of the War Puzzle.

Remember, the Midterm Exam is February 21st!

And on voting day...

Here is an interesting description of the swing voter.

From the same website, is the youth voter doomed?

The number of (2004) registered voters by state.

Project Description

Here is the description of the project from today's class. Note that additional information will be posted later this week.

Equal Time

A recent article in the George Washington Law Review by Robert Chesney (at Wake Forest) finds that the Bush Administration is not necessarily using executive privilege more than previous administrations.

As The Monkey Cage reports, Chesney finds, "that since the seminal Supreme Court decision (U.S. v. Reynolds in 1953), there has been a sharp rise in invocations of the privilege, but most of that upward trend occurred during the 1980s, not since 2001. From 2001 through 2006, the Bush administration invoked the privilege a total of 20 times — an average of about 3.3 times per year. By comparison, between 1991 and 2000, Bush’s immediate predecessors, the senior Bush and the putatively first Clinton, tallied an average of 2.6 such assertions per year, up from Reagan and Bush’s average of 2.3 per year between 1981 and 1990. Thus, an upward trend in recent years, but in Chesney’s judgment (and, for that matter, according to by conventional statistical criteria) not a significant one."

Books, IQ, and Facebook

Can book preferences on Facebook tell you much about a particular school or attendee? See this link.

Are there any problems with the research design? What are they?

Ferrets?

Here are some clips from a new "Best In Show" type documentary on PBS.

from the Monkey Cage:
"...A DVD version is available for purchase. As a prudent consumer, you may prefer to try it before you buy it. Here and here and here and here, then, are some snippets for your consideration. Try this movie and you’ll be charmed by the sheer looniness of it all."

Notes on democratic peace

Here are the notes for Thursday, 1/24.

Here are the notes for Tuesday, 1/29.

And here are the notes for Thursday, 1/31.

Rambo-like Inflation

Number of people killed per minute in the Rambo series.

• Rambo: First Blood (1982): 0.01

• Rambo: First Blood Part II (1985): 0.72

• Rambo III (1988): 1.30

• Rambo IV (2008): 2.59

(Thanks to Peter Gordon via the Marginal Revolution.)

Notes for today's class

Here are the notes on evaluating theories.

Here are the notes on neorealism.

For Thursday, remember to read well into the Russett and Oneal book.

Interesting Map

Here is an interesting map of the United States based on the GDP of developing countries.

Short Introduction to Political Analysis

Here's a quick outline with links that should hopefully get you up to speed for the material in this course (originally posted, 8/25/06):

Scientific Method

A. Theory

B. Hypotheses

- Independent and Dependent Variables

C. Operationalization and Measurement

D. Testing (case studies versus quantitative methods)

- Correlation (also here) and types of relationships (negative, positive, no relationship, and spurious relationship)

E. Other issues:

1.) Because we don’t always have a random sample, there will usually be a problem of selection bias

2.) Many issues we will deal with also will have complicated causal logics, even perhaps including some endogeneity

Syllabus for PSC442 International Conflict

Follow this link to a copy of the syllabus for PSC442 International Conflict.