International Markets

It's going to be bumpy economic ride according to Greg Mankiw, economist at Harvard. Of course, if you have money to invest, maybe a good place is Africa these days? Check out this Empowerment Lab project. Wondering how big the proposed bailout would be? Check here for an interesting chart.

So how do you think these economic events are going to affect those in college today? Any ideas?

Class Notes -- Chapter 7 (What is Power?)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Summary Statistics for Exam 1

The results are in for the first exam in PSC204, and here are some brief summary statistics:

Total Number of Exams: 150
Mean score: 68.1
Range: 28 to 96 (question #44 was omitted because of an error)

UPDATE: Access your test score here, and here is a copy of the test questions.

Full details of student distribution:

grade | Freq. %age Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
28 | 1 0.67 0.67
33 | 1 0.67 1.33
36 | 1 0.67 2.00
39 | 1 0.67 2.67
42 | 1 0.67 3.33
44 | 1 0.67 4.00
46 | 1 0.67 4.67
47 | 1 0.67 5.33
48 | 2 1.33 6.67
49 | 1 0.67 7.33
50 | 2 1.33 8.67
52 | 1 0.67 9.33
54 | 3 2.00 11.33
55 | 3 2.00 13.33
56 | 3 2.00 15.33
57 | 4 2.67 18.00
58 | 4 2.67 20.67
59 | 4 2.67 23.33
60 | 7 4.67 28.00
61 | 3 2.00 30.00
62 | 3 2.00 32.00
63 | 9 6.00 38.00
64 | 3 2.00 40.00
65 | 3 2.00 42.00
66 | 3 2.00 44.00
67 | 4 2.67 46.67
68 | 6 4.00 50.67
69 | 7 4.67 55.33
70 | 4 2.67 58.00
71 | 5 3.33 61.33
72 | 4 2.67 64.00
73 | 1 0.67 64.67
74 | 2 1.33 66.00
75 | 5 3.33 69.33
76 | 5 3.33 72.67
77 | 6 4.00 76.67
78 | 2 1.33 78.00
79 | 4 2.67 80.67
80 | 2 1.33 82.00
81 | 4 2.67 84.67
82 | 4 2.67 87.33
83 | 6 4.00 91.33
84 | 1 0.67 92.00
85 | 1 0.67 92.67
86 | 2 1.33 94.00
88 | 1 0.67 94.67
89 | 1 0.67 95.33
91 | 3 2.00 97.33
92 | 1 0.67 98.00
95 | 2 1.33 99.33
96 | 1 0.67 100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
Total | 150 100.00

More on the troop surge

Here is a link to some interesting research on the troop surge in Iraq. Take special note of the assumptions they're making regarding their data.

And for those who enjoy a bit of an historical perspective on things... here are some old Marlboro ads. Smoke up, Mom!

Class Notes -- Chapter 6 (Domestic Politics)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Voter Turnout by Age

Interesting graph of who votes is here. Could the low voter turnout be because all the youngsters were using their Blackberrys? 35% of respondents would give up their spouse rather than their PDA. More:

• 87% of those interviewed admit that they bring their PDA or smartphone to the bedroom at night.
• 84% check their email right before nodding off.
• 80% check their email as soon as they wake up.
• 62% claim they actually love their PDA or smartphone

Website supporting the Principles... Textbook

Here is a website that has quizzes, study guides, etc..., that support the Principles textbook by Bueno de Mesquita. It seems like a good resource for study before the test.

UPDATE: I've put two copies of the textbook and two copies of the workbook on reserve at Gorgas Library. They're available for full day checkout, so make sure to beat the rush and review them now if you need to do so.

Political Science Research on Misinformation and Political Campaigns

The use of misinformation in political campaigning is a hot topic right now. John Sides at The Monkey Cage highlights a Washington Post article that discusses some recent experimental research.

From the WashPo article:

In experiments conducted by political scientist John Bullock at Yale University, volunteers were given various items of political misinformation from real life. One group of volunteers was shown a transcript of an ad created by NARAL Pro-Choice America that accused John G. Roberts Jr., President Bush's nominee to the Supreme Court at the time, of "supporting violent fringe groups and a convicted clinic bomber."...

Bullock then showed volunteers a refutation of the ad by abortion-rights supporters. He also told the volunteers that the advocacy group had withdrawn the ad. Although 56 percent of Democrats had originally disapproved of Roberts before hearing the misinformation, 80 percent of Democrats disapproved of the Supreme Court nominee afterward. Upon hearing the refutation, Democratic disapproval of Roberts dropped only to 72 percent.

Republican disapproval of Roberts rose after hearing the misinformation but vanished upon hearing the correct information. The damaging charge, in other words, continued to have an effect even after it was debunked among precisely those people predisposed to buy the bad information in the first place.

There also may be a "backfire effect" in which refutation reinforces the original misinformation:

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A paper by John Bullock is here. Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler’s paper is here. AFP students should think about the perseverance effect here when we talk about Khong's book.

Class Notes -- Chapter 5 (Domestic Politics and Strategic Choice)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gamson and Modigliani

Here are the notes for today's class.

Surge or Surveillance?

About a week old, but here's a link to a description of Bob Woodward's new book. Note two things-- first, the US apparently spied heavily on the new Iraqi administration, and second, Woodward claims heavy surveillance in general is more responsible than the troop surge for the decline in violence in Iraq recently.

Khong book

Here is a very limited preview of the Khong book. If you're having trouble locating a copy in the bookstore, you may want to use this to keep up with the class. However, definitely don't depend on this preview for the test!!

Link to Gaddis' book

Here is a link to Gaddis' argument on the start of the Cold War. Note that you cannot print from these pages. So, if you'd like a hardcopy, you can go to the library or order a copy for yourself.

[N.B.: I'll only test from Gaddis based on what was covered in class. I will not pull questions from the book. The link is only provided in case you didn't understand part of the argument.]

The End of the World (and Other Things)

So, the end of the world could be tomorrow, if things at CERN don't go well. If the world doesn't in, you may want to check out this description of a shipping container that's traversing the globe. It's geeky, of course, but very cool, too.

Last, be sure not to listen to those naysayers predicting dire consequences if you vote (or even register to vote).

UPDATE (9/10): Apparently, the world did NOT end today. Here is the story, with some cool maps and graphics.

Class Notes -- Chapter 4 (Structural Theories)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Gaddis and the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes for today's class.

Georgia, Russia, and the US

Back to international relations and American Foreign Policy...

VP Dick Cheney was in Georgia yesterday affirming US support for Saakashvili's government. After pledging $1B (that's billion) in reconstruction aid for the country, Mr. Cheney is now suggesting that the US would encourage Georgian entry to NATO.

Here are some questions to consider in light of what we're talking about in class: Why give so much aid to Georgia and how do you think this deal affects Russian decision-making? Is it a credible commitment to the country? NATO membership carries a pledge to defend a country against attack. Do you think NATO would actually allow Georgian entry in the near future? If not, then why would the VP make this statement?

Also, there's a large literature on the effects of aid, the promotion of democracy and support of foreign leaders (democratic or otherwise). For my take on this literature, see this recent paper.

Palin's Speech and Nixon's Checkers Speech

Here's an interesting point about the GOP VP candidate's speech last night. As Philip Kilnker puts it, the parallels to Nixon's "Checkers" speech are "striking"...

Speaker on Friday

UA will host a very interesting speaker at 2pm on Friday--

the College will have a very special guest on campus this week, National Academy of Science and UA Alumnus Michael Oldstone. He will present a lecture “How Viruses Changed our Country, Continent and Culture: Past, Present and Future Plagues,” at 2 p.m. Sept. 5 in 127 Biology Building. We hope you will attend if possible and encourage your students to do so as well.

For more information, check here.
And no, you will not get extra credit for attending-- well, at least no extra credit in class, perhaps extra credit in life?

Do VP choices matter?

Andrew Gelman, a statistician at Columbia University says no. Here and here.

How did we come to have lectures at universities?

Here is a really interesting post by economist, Brad DeLong.

Class Notes -- Chapter 3 (Strategic Interactions)

Here are the notes for today's class.

Class Notes -- Spanier and the Start of the Cold War

Here are the notes for today's class.