Interesting GDP data...

Note the differences between what country people in the US think is #1 and what country actually is #1.

Alliance Notes

Here are the notes for today's class.

New Freedom House Data -- 2007 was not a good year...

Here is a description of the 2007 Freedom House data rating the level of democracy in countries around the world. Apparently, 2007 was not a very good year for the advancement of democracy.

Perhaps things will change with Castro stepping down?

Here is a summary quote from the report:

The year 2007 was marked by a notable setback for global freedom. The decline, which was reflected in reversals in one-fifth of the world’s countries, was most pronounced in South Asia, but also reached significant levels in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It affected a substantial number of large and politically important countries—including Russia, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Venezuela—whose declines have wider regional and global implications. Other countries experienced reversals after a period of progress toward democracy, including pivotal states in the Arab Middle East. While many more countries suffered declines than registered improvements, the degree of change reflected in some countries was modest while in others the decline was more substantial. …[The] results for 2007 marked the second consecutive year in which the survey registered a decline in freedom, representing the first two-year setback in the past 15 years. In all, nearly four times as many countries showed significant declines during the year as registered improvements.

Class Notes - Steps to War Model

Here are the notes for today's class.

Remember: 1) Test this Thursday; 2) Bibliography for project next Thursday.

The effects of a decentralized al-Qa'ida

So why does the US often report that "high level al-Qa'ida operatives" have been killed or captured? How many are there?

This article in US News on the decentralizaed structure of terrorist organizations, al-Qa'ida in particular, has been mentioned quite a bit (see here and here for example). The Monkey Cage builds on this article and points to the academic research behind the argument-- for example, a recent International Studies Quarterly article by Shaprio and Siegel which argues:

The puzzle for traditional perspectives on terrorist financial and logistical systems is that groups, which are purportedly organized to carry out attacks often provide inadequate funds to their operatives. … suppose that the members of a terrorist support network, middlemen, were not uniformly driven by mission accomplishment, but that some were driven by monetary rewards.

According to Shapiro's other work, al-Qa'ida has often been concerned with management issues. However, after the forced decentralization of the hierarchical structure in late 2002, monitoring of terrorist agents became problematic:

From the mid-1990s through late-2001, al-Qa’ida made every effort to become a fully bureaucratized organization, complete with employment contracts specifying vacation policies, explicitly documented roles and responsibilities for different jobs including detailed descriptions of the experiences required for senior leadership roles, security memos written by a specialized security committee,14 and standardized questionnares for those arriving at training camps. Al-Qa’ida did not decide to decentralize until 2002, following the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan and the arrest of a number of key al-Qa’ida leaders … In response these and other key losses, al-Qa’ida allegedly convened a strategic summit in northern Iran in November 2002, at which the group’s consultative council decided that it could no longer operate as a hierarchy, but instead would have to decentralize. Essentially, al-Qa’ida traded operational control and financial efficiencies for security and organizational survival.

So what does all this mean for the US ability to capture top operatives? As Henry Farrell points out:

Skeptics, ditch-hurlers and finger-pointers have suggested that the US may have slightly exaggerated the importance of these kills, going so far as to draw rather unkind comparisons between the life prospects (a) of someone appointed to the position of third-in-command in al-Qaeda, and (b) of someone appointed as drummer in Spinal Tap. But a less cynical take is possible. Perhaps, given the problems outlined above, Al-Qaeda (new model) needs lots and lots of executive vice-presidents for financial control and auditing to try to keep track of what their various subcontractors are up to.

Notes on Power Politics

Here are today's notes for class.

Reminders:
1) Next Thursday, 2/21 is the first test.
2) On 2/28, the bibliography for the project is due.

Instructions for Project #1

I've created a web site that describes the project in great detail.
The site can be found here.

If you have questions about the project, we can discuss them on
Tuesday before class.

Euro accepted here...

Reuters (via Drudge) describes how some New York City retailers are hanging signs that they will begin accepting Euros rather than dollars. Is this a bad thing?

From the article: The increasingly weak U.S. dollar, once considered the king among currencies, has brought waves of European tourists to New York with money to burn and looking to take advantage of hugely favorable exchange rates. "We didn't realize we would take so much in and there were that many people traveling or having euros to bring in. But some days, you'd be surprised at how many euros you get," Chu said.

Class Notes -- War Puzzle

Here are the notes on the introductory chapter of the War Puzzle.

Remember, the Midterm Exam is February 21st!

And on voting day...

Here is an interesting description of the swing voter.

From the same website, is the youth voter doomed?

The number of (2004) registered voters by state.

Project Description

Here is the description of the project from today's class. Note that additional information will be posted later this week.